Over the weekend Claude learned the construction details of all tracked models. Each was independently verified to ensure the mechanics were sound and that performance figures were accurate. Everything tested out as expected, although it did find an error in the calculation of the Swing Model performance figures that has been corrected. Each model page
A Quiet Reaction to Warsh’s Debut — What Happens After a Muted Jackson Hole Trigger note · August 28, 2026 Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair today, and the market’s answer was a shrug: the S&P 500 closed near 7,710, down -0.27% on the session. Going back to 1991 —
Market Note Jackson Hole and the S&P 500: Thirty Years of Fed Chair Speeches, Mapped Against the Market What actually happens to stocks on and after the day the Fed Chair takes the podium in Jackson Hole — going back to Alan Greenspan. Prepared August 28, 2026 Every August, market attention swings to a resort
New-trigger client note · August 27, 2026 NYSE Tick Cluster Flashes a Rare Warning The NYSE tick’s intraday high fell under 600 for the third time in five sessions today — only the sixth time this specific cluster has formed since mid-2024. The five prior instances lean negative for the S&P 500 over the following
VIX Futures — Leveraged Funds Extreme Net-Short Original signal research · August 26, 2026 When hedge funds/CTAs (the CFTC’s “Leveraged Funds” category) push their VIX futures net position to a trailing extreme — the bottom 5% of a rolling 3-year lookback, i.e. maximum net-short/short-volatility positioning — the S&P 500’s forward return has historically run well
Apologies for not catching this earlier. NYSE Confusion ended back under
Transports/Industrials RSI Divergence New indicator debut & active signal update · August 25, 2026 A classic Dow Theory tell, quantified: when the Dow Jones Transportation Average’s 14-day RSI falls at least 20 points below the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 14-day RSI — transports badly failing to confirm the industrials’ strength — the S&P 500’s three-month
SPY Posts Nine Red Closes in Ten Sessions New-trigger client note · 24 August 2026 SPY closing below its own opening print in nine of the last ten sessions has happened only 13 times since the ETF launched in 1993 — genuinely rare. The record afterward leans bullish: 11 of 13 prior instances were higher