Semiconductors Lead the Nasdaq 100 for a Third Day New-trigger client note · September 17, 2026 After lagging four sessions ago, the semiconductor index has now outperformed the Nasdaq 100 for three straight sessions, today by 1.41 percentage points. That is the 163rd occurrence since 1994, and it carries a real but strictly one-day edge:
S&P 500 Three-Day Volatility Collapses Below 1 New-trigger client note · September 16, 2026 Three-day realized volatility on the S&P 500 finished today at 0.32 — the 8th-lowest reading in 9,182 sessions of history, inside the bottom one-tenth of one percent of all days. On the full record this condition has been a decent short-horizon
A Loud Day in a Very Quiet Tape Research log · five ideas tested, none cleared the bar · September 16, 2026 The S&P 500 travelled 1.58% from high to low today — 2.7 times its average daily range over the prior twenty sessions, and that twenty-session average is itself in the bottom 5% of
The First Hike After a Long Pause MARKET NOTE · September 16, 2026 · Twelve episodes since 1950 The Fed is expected to raise rates today for the first time since July 2023 — a gap of roughly three years. That puts the market in a rare spot. Since 1950 there have been only twelve
Negative Tick Into the Fed New-trigger client note · September 15, 2026 Cumulative NYSE tick has closed negative on each of the last three sessions going into tomorrow’s Federal Reserve announcement — the 21st such occurrence since July 2007 and the first since December 2025. The honest verdict is that this one is weak. Across
Two Down Days Into the Fed New-trigger client note · September 15, 2026 The S&P 500 has now fallen more than a quarter of a percent on two consecutive sessions immediately ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement — the 24th occurrence since 1991 and the first since May 2025. The record is unambiguous about what
When the 10-Year Walks Into the Fed Meeting at a High MARKETTELLS RESEARCH · SEPTEMBER 15, 2026 · S&P 500 AND 10-YEAR YIELD, 1990–2026 The 10-year Treasury yield looks set to close right around 5.00% — its highest level since July 2007 — on the eve of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. We tested what has historically
Four Ideas That Didn’t Make It Research log · what we tested and rejected · September 14, 2026 Most research notes show you the one idea that worked. This one shows the four that didn’t. On September 14 we ran a full screen across the S&P 500’s price, breadth, volatility and cross-index momentum history back