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On Monday the Semiconductor Index (SOX) 14-day RSI topped 75 for the second time this year. This doesn’t have any short-term implications, but it’s a bullish long-term indication (for the broad market). Every time since inception that the SOX 14-day RSI crossed above 75 is shown below. The S&P500 was higher six months later 94% of the time, significantly above the 74% random odds. Average gain was 10%…

Here’s the same table but showing the performance of the SOX index instead of the S&P500. It’s not as reliably bullish…

Also interesting to note Monday was also only the 10th time since SOX inception that both the SOX and SPX 14-day RSI closed above 75. Too small a sample but similar results 2-3 months out…

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