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Corporate bond market activity triggered a buy signal for stocks at Wednesday’s close. This indicator, based on breadth in the investment-grade universe, has a decent track record at calling for a higher S&P500 one quarter later. Over the last 30 closed signals since 2009, only four failed to lead to a higher S&P three months later (with two of the four caught in the initial covid-related decline). Average gain was 6%…

IGCBI >10 (first occurrence in three weeks)
06/12/24… S&P500 ???
03/08/24… S&P500 +4.4% three months later
01/11/24… S&P500 +7.2% three months later
11/29/23… S&P500 +12.9% three months later
04/09/20… S&P500 +14.2% three months later
01/03/20… S&P500 -23.1% three months later
11/26/19… S&P500 -5.9% three months later
10/03/19… S&P500 +11.1% three months later
07/08/19… S&P500 -2.2% three months later
04/02/19… S&P500 +3.7% three months later
02/26/19… S&P500 +0.3% three months later
01/31/19… S&P500 +7.9% three months later
12/15/17… S&P500 +1.5% three months later
08/23/16… S&P500 +0.5% three months later
06/08/16… S&P500 +3.2% three months later
05/03/16… S&P500 +4.5% three months later
03/31/16… S&P500 +0.5% three months later
01/05/15… S&P500 +2.8% three months later
10/14/14… S&P500 +7.1% three months later
08/27/14… S&P500 +3.4% three months later
05/28/14… S&P500 +4.7% three months later
10/02/12… S&P500 +1.4% three months later
07/09/12… S&P500 +8.0% three months later
01/31/12… S&P500 +7.1% three months later
08/02/11… S&P500 -0.1% three months later
11/04/10… S&P500 +7.4% three months later
09/28/10… S&P500 +9.7% three months later
06/29/10… S&P500 +10.2% three months later
01/12/10… S&P500 +6.6% three months later
12/17/09… S&P500 +6.4% three months later
11/12/09… S&P500 +0.7% three months later

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