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NASDAQ decliners outnumbered advancers Monday despite the solid rally. Below is every instance since 2000 in which the Nasdaq100 (NDX) closed up 1.5% or more and breadth on the Nasdaq exchange was negative. Over 23 occurrences, only 4 led to a higher NDX one week later. Average loss was 4.5%…

NDX +1.5%, Nasdaq Breadth Negative
03/28/22… Nasdaq ??? one week later
11/29/21… Nasdaq -3.4% one week later
03/22/21… Nasdaq -0.9% one week later
08/26/20… Nasdaq +3.8% one week later
07/31/20… Nasdaq +2.1% one week later
04/16/20… Nasdaq -1.3% one week later
10/15/10… Nasdaq +0.3% one week later
09/11/08… Nasdaq -4.3% one week later
01/09/08… Nasdaq -3.9% one week later
08/06/07… Nasdaq -1.0% one week later
03/07/05… Nasdaq -1.9% one week later
07/22/04… Nasdaq -0.7% one week later
01/29/03… Nasdaq -4.7% one week later
07/15/02… Nasdaq -8.0% one week later
07/11/02… Nasdaq -0.3% one week later
07/03/02… Nasdaq +0.2% one week later
06/24/02… Nasdaq -5.6% one week later
06/12/02… Nasdaq -2.3% one week later
06/04/02… Nasdaq -6.6% one week later
04/01/02… Nasdaq -5.8% one week later
03/22/01… Nasdaq -8.2% one week later
03/05/01… Nasdaq -12.3% one week later
03/01/01… Nasdaq -1.5% one week later
02/14/01… Nasdaq -11.9% one week later

Neglected to mention this one over the weekend – SPX ADT10 triggered a buy signal last Friday. This breadth thrust indicator has a strong track record at calling for a higher stock market over the long-term. Going back to 1990, 43 out of 44 closed signals led to a higher S&P one year later, averaging a gain of 15%…

SPX 10-day Advance/Decline Thrust (ADT10) Crosses 65
03/25/22… S&P500 ??? one year later
01/04/22… S&P500 -4.5% (open – ends January 2023)
10/07/20… S&P500 +28.7% one year later
06/03/20… S&P500 +34.3% one year later
10/22/19… S&P500 +14.7% one year later
09/09/19… S&P500 +11.9% one year later
06/14/19… S&P500 +6.2% one year later
01/09/19… S&P500 +26.7% one year later
11/07/18… S&P500 +9.9% one year later
06/01/17… S&P500 +12.5% one year later
07/11/16… S&P500 +13.5% one year later
02/26/16… S&P500 +21.7% one year later
10/12/15… S&P500 +5.9% one year later
10/27/14… S&P500 +5.3% one year later
08/21/14… S&P500 -1.1% one year later
06/06/14… S&P500 +6.7% one year later
02/18/14… S&P500 +14.1% one year later
12/30/13… S&P500 +13.0% one year later
10/29/13… S&P500 +11.9% one year later
10/22/13… S&P500 +9.8% one year later
09/16/13… S&P500 +17.8% one year later
07/09/13… S&P500 +19.4% one year later
05/15/13… S&P500 +12.8% one year later
03/11/13… S&P500 +20.0% one year later
06/19/12… S&P500 +17.3% one year later
10/17/11… S&P500 +21.2 one year later
06/30/11… S&P500 +3.1% one year later
03/30/11… S&P500 +5.7% one year later
09/14/10… S&P500 +4.6% one year later
07/20/10… S&P500 +22.5% one year later
03/11/10… S&P500 +12.6% one year later
10/16/09… S&P500 +8.9% one year later
09/16/09… S&P500 +5.2% one year later
07/21/09… S&P500 +12.1% one year later
03/19/09… S&P500 +47.9% one year later
12/05/08… S&P500 +25.9% one year later
11/05/04… S&P500 +4.6% one year later
10/14/03… S&P500 +5.1% one year later
06/04/03… S&P500 +13.2% one year later
03/25/03… S&P500 +24.8% one year later
10/23/02… S&P500 +15.4% one year later
08/19/02… S&P500 +5.4% one year later
05/05/97… S&P500 +34.4% one year later
12/31/91… S&P500 +5.0% one year later
01/30/91… S&P500 +20.4% one year later
05/11/90… S&P500 +6.7% one year later

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