Expiration Week – MarketTells.com

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Three consecutive up days heading into options expiration week typically leads to further upside, so a higher SPX today would be short-term bullish. While the Friday of expiration week can be unpredictable, the first four sessions usually see the market flat or higher when this pattern is in effect. Over the last 30 occurrences since 2000, the S&P was up 23 times (77%) and down 7 times four sessions later, a decent edge over the 56% random odds. Average gain was 1%, double the 0.5% average loss. 1% moves were 9-0…

SPX Up Three Heading into Expiration Week
08/13/21… S&P ??? four sessions later
04/09/21… S&P +1.0% four sessions later
03/12/21… S&P -0.7% four sessions later
01/08/21… S&P -0.8% four sessions later
10/09/20… S&P +0.2% four sessions later
12/13/19… S&P +1.2% four sessions later
11/08/19… S&P +0.1% four sessions later
10/11/19… S&P +0.9% four sessions later
07/12/19… S&P -0.6% four sessions later
04/12/19… S&P -0.1% four sessions later
09/14/18… S&P +0.9% four sessions later
05/11/18… S&P -0.3% four sessions later
07/14/17… S&P +0.6% four sessions later
02/10/17… S&P +1.3% four sessions later
12/09/16… S&P +0.1% four sessions later
03/11/16… S&P +0.9% four sessions later
10/09/15… S&P +0.5% four sessions later
04/10/15… S&P +0.1% four sessions later
10/11/13… S&P +1.8% four sessions later
07/12/13… S&P +0.6% four sessions later
03/08/13… S&P +0.8% four sessions later
09/14/12… S&P -0.4% four sessions later
08/10/12… S&P +0.7% four sessions later
03/09/12… S&P +2.3% four sessions later
12/10/10… S&P +0.2% four sessions later
09/10/10… S&P +1.4% four sessions later
07/09/10… S&P +1.7% four sessions later
01/08/10… S&P +0.3% four sessions later
12/11/09… S&P -0.9% four sessions later
10/09/09… S&P +2.3% four sessions later
03/13/09… S&P +3.6% four sessions later