New High Pre-Jobs + A Seasonal Headwind

By .

Copyright reminder: The following research note is intended solely for the use of subscribers. Redistribution in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.

The S&P500 closed a fresh all-time high Thursday, setting the stage for a sideways-to-up day on Friday. Below are the last 30 times SPX hit a 40-day high (intraday or end-of-day) one day before the employment report. 24 out of 30 (80%) led to a higher close on the day of the report, a decent edge over the 55% random odds. 0.5% moves were 14-2, 1% moves were pretty rare at 4-1…

SPX 40-day High (Intraday or EOD) Prior to Employment Report
08/05/21… S&P500 ??? next session
07/01/21… S&P500 +0.8% next session
04/01/21… S&P500 +1.4% next session
02/04/21… S&P500 +0.4% next session
01/07/21… S&P500 +0.6% next session
12/03/20… S&P500 +0.9% next session
08/06/20… S&P500 +0.1% next session
02/06/20… S&P500 -0.5% next session
01/09/20… S&P500 -0.3% next session
10/31/19… S&P500 +1.0% next session
07/03/19… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/04/19… S&P500 +0.5% next session
01/04/18… S&P500 +0.7% next session
11/02/17… S&P500 +0.3% next session
10/05/17… S&P500 -0.1% next session
06/01/17… S&P500 +0.4% next session
05/04/17… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/02/16… S&P500 -0.3% next session
03/31/16… S&P500 +0.6% next session
03/03/16… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/04/14… S&P500 +0.2% next session
11/06/14… S&P500 +0.0% next session
09/04/14… S&P500 +0.5% next session
07/02/14… S&P500 +0.6% next session
06/05/14… S&P500 +0.5% next session
04/03/14… S&P500 -1.3% next session
03/06/14… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/07/13… S&P500 +1.3% next session
10/21/13… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/01/13… S&P500 +0.2% next session
05/02/13… S&P500 +1.1% next session

Looking beyond Friday, seasonal headwinds are in play through mid-August. Below we look at all instances since 1990 in which the S&P500 closed at a new 52-week high during the month of August. Only 6 out of 27 occurrences since 1990 led to a higher S&P500 two weeks later. Average loss was 1.3%…

spx 52wk High in Month of August
08/05/21… SPX ???
08/03/21… SPX ???
08/18/20… SPX +4.0% two weeks later
08/24/18… SPX +0.1% two weeks later
08/07/17… SPX -2.1% two weeks later
08/15/16… SPX -0.5% two weeks later
08/11/16… SPX -0.6% two weeks later
08/05/16… SPX +0.1% two weeks later
08/29/14… SPX -1.0% two weeks later
08/27/14… SPX -0.1% two weeks later
08/26/14… SPX -0.2% two weeks later
08/25/14… SPX -0.5% two weeks later
08/21/14… SPX +0.8% two weeks later
08/02/13… SPX -3.2% two weeks later
08/01/13… SPX -2.7% two weeks later
08/03/05… SPX -2.0% two weeks later
08/02/05… SPX -2.0% two weeks later
08/06/97… SPX -2.2% two weeks later
08/31/93… SPX -0.4% two weeks later
08/30/93… SPX -0.4% two weeks later
08/26/93… SPX +0.2% two weeks later
08/25/93… SPX -0.6% two weeks later
08/24/93… SPX -0.7% two weeks later
08/19/93… SPX +1.1% two weeks later
08/03/92… SPX -1.0% two weeks later
08/28/91… SPX -2.3% two weeks later
08/23/91… SPX -1.4% two weeks later
08/22/91… SPX -0.6% two weeks later
08/06/91… SPX -2.9% two weeks later

Copyright 2021 Yang Market Research - All Rights Reserved<