Five-Day Pattern – MarketTells.com

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Volume among S&P500 components bumped up slightly Monday to 1.8 billion, the first day with increasing volume since last Tuesday. I didn’t catch this at the end of last week, but when SPX volume steadily drops with three sessions remaining before an FOMC announcement, the market has rallied over those next three sessions in 12 out of 12 occurrences since 1990. This suggests an S&P above 4411 at Wednesday’s close, although the small sample size prevents this from inclusion in active studies…

SPX Volume Down Three Sessions, 3 Days Prior to Fed Day
07/23/21… SPX ??? three sessions later
03/12/21… SPX +0.8% three sessions later
09/14/15… SPX +1.9% three sessions later
10/24/14… SPX +0.9% three sessions later
10/25/13… SPX +0.2% three sessions later
09/13/13… SPX +2.2% three sessions later
09/16/10… SPX +1.3% three sessions later
03/13/09… SPX +5.0% three sessions later
05/04/07… SPX +0.5% three sessions later
06/26/06… SPX +1.8% three sessions later
03/21/96… SPX +0.6% three sessions later
01/29/93… SPX +1.9% three sessions later
06/26/92… SPX +2.3% three sessions later

Monday marked the fifth consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows for the Nasdaq100. That’s been a fairly positive short-term indication when the NDX is also above its 50-day average. Over the last 30 occurrences, the NDX was up 25 times (83%) one week later, a solid edge over the 62% random odds. Average gain and loss were both small at 1.2% and 1.1% respectively…

NDX Five Higher Highs, Higher Lows & >50d Avg
(first time in ten sessions)
07/26/21… NDX ??? one week later
02/05/21… NDX +1.5% one week later
10/01/20… NDX -0.3% one week later
08/06/20… NDX -0.8% one week later
07/07/20… NDX +1.6% one week later
05/11/20… NDX +0.4% one week later
01/13/20… NDX +1.1% one week later
12/17/19… NDX +1.4% one week later
08/29/18… NDX -2.7% one week later
06/05/18… NDX +0.6% one week later
02/16/18… NDX +3.2% one week later
01/08/18… NDX +0.9% one week later
12/13/17… NDX +1.2% one week later
10/18/17… NDX -1.0% one week later
07/13/17… NDX +2.2% one week later
05/25/17… NDX +1.8% one week later
04/28/17… NDX +1.1% one week later
02/22/17… NDX +0.7% one week later
01/09/17… NDX +0.4% one week later
11/21/16… NDX +0.3% one week later
05/26/16… NDX +0.5% one week later
07/15/15… NDX +2.1% one week later
05/19/15… NDX +0.9% one week later
04/13/15… NDX +0.2% one week later
02/17/15… NDX +1.5% one week later
11/13/14… NDX +0.7% one week later
10/24/14… NDX +2.9% one week later
08/19/14… NDX +0.8% one week later
07/03/14… NDX -0.5% one week later
05/23/14… NDX +1.5% one week later
02/12/14… NDX +1.2% one week later
11/27/13… NDX +0.2% one week later
10/16/13… NDX +2.0% one week later