TICK Pattern – MarketTells.com

While the short-term outlook isn’t positive, it’s worth noting the S&P just shrugged off a negative Cumulative TICK to close higher Monday. That’s the third time in five sessions it’s managed to do so, a pattern that has typically led to a rally over the next two weeks. Over 37 occurrences since 2010, the S&P was 31-6 ten sessions later. That 84% win rate is significantly above the 64% random odds. One negative is the average loss of 2.6%, well above the 1.5% average gain, indicating that when wrong this signal is really wrong…

SPX Closes Up w/ negative Cumulative TICK 3/6 sessions
01/13/25… SPX ???
12/11/24… SPX -0.8% two weeks later
12/03/24… SPX +0.0% two weeks later
11/20/24… SPX +2.7% two weeks later
11/13/24… SPX +0.2% two weeks later
10/29/24… SPX +2.6% two weeks later
10/08/24… SPX +1.7% two weeks later
09/30/24… SPX +1.7% two weeks later
07/01/24… SPX +3.5% two weeks later
06/13/24… SPX +0.5% two weeks later
05/21/24… SPX +0.6% two weeks later
05/14/24… SPX +0.4% two weeks later
11/08/23… SPX +4.0% two weeks later
10/02/23… SPX +2.0% two weeks later
09/11/23… SPX -3.3% two weeks later
10/21/21… SPX +2.9% two weeks later
08/19/21… SPX +3.0% two weeks later
08/21/20… SPX +0.9% two weeks later
11/12/19… SPX +1.6% two weeks later
11/04/19… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
10/25/19… SPX +2.3% two weeks later
04/22/19… SPX +0.8% two weeks later
04/12/19… SPX +1.2% two weeks later
09/19/18… SPX +0.6% two weeks later
07/24/18… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
04/25/18… SPX +2.2% two weeks later
01/31/18… SPX -4.4% two weeks later
12/12/17… SPX +0.7% two weeks later
05/08/17… SPX -0.2% two weeks later
10/12/16… SPX +0.0% two weeks later
01/19/16… SPX +1.2% two weeks later
06/04/14… SPX +1.5% two weeks later
11/08/13… SPX +1.9% two weeks later
07/08/13… SPX +3.4% two weeks later
06/03/13… SPX -0.1% two weeks later
03/16/12… SPX +0.3% two weeks later
09/16/11… SPX -7.0% two weeks later
12/20/10… SPX +1.9% two weeks later

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