Copyright 2025 Yang Market Research

Wednesday marked sixty consecutive sessions that the BondTimer oscillator has been in negative territory. That’s only happened on 14 other occasions since I began tracking this in 2005. Most cases led to further weakness in bonds (higher rates) over the next three months, suggesting it’s not too late to join the short TLT trade. Average loss of 4% was double the 2% average gain. This suggests an area of resistance in the TLT 88 region looking out to early April…

BondTimer Model in Negative Territory 60 Trading Days
01/08/25… TLT ???
04/04/24… TLT -3.0% sixty trading days later
09/05/23… TLT -1.0% sixty trading days later
12/06/22… TLT -5.5% sixty trading days later
11/02/21… TLT -2.7% sixty trading days later
11/20/20… TLT -11.3% sixty trading days later
12/13/17… TLT -6.4% sixty trading days later
06/27/16… TLT -2.4% sixty trading days later
05/28/15… TLT +3.2% sixty trading days later
09/27/12… TLT -1.6% sixty trading days later
01/27/12… TLT -0.8% sixty trading days later
10/29/10… TLT -9.4% sixty trading days later
12/07/09… TLT -3.4% sixty trading days later
06/29/09… TLT +1.8% sixty trading days later
04/28/06… TLT +1.0% sixty trading days later

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