Copyright 2025 Yang Market Research

When stocks close lower on the first trading day of the year, the amount it closes down seems important. Since 1990, if the S&P loses less than 0.5% on the first day, stocks have been flat or higher three weeks later in every case. But when the S&P loses more than 0.5%, the next three weeks have been much more random (up 5, down 5) with big moves in both directions (avg 4%)…

SPX Down First Day of Year, Closes w/ Loss of <0.5%
01/02/25… SPX ???
01/03/23… SPX +5.0% three weeks later
01/02/15… SPX -0.1% three weeks later
01/03/07… SPX +0.5% three weeks later
01/02/04… SPX +4.2% three weeks later
01/04/99… SPX +2.0% three weeks later
01/03/95… SPX +1.5% three weeks later
01/03/94… SPX +1.4% three weeks later
01/04/93… SPX +1.1% three weeks later

SPX Down First Day of Year, Closes w/ Loss of >0.5%
01/02/24… SPX +2.7% three weeks later
01/04/21… SPX +4.0% three weeks later
01/04/16… SPX -5.4% three weeks later
01/02/14… SPX -2.3% three weeks later
01/02/08… SPX -6.6% three weeks later
01/03/05… SPX -2.8% three weeks later
01/02/01… SPX +6.3% three weeks later
01/03/00… SPX -3.1% three weeks later
01/02/97… SPX +5.5% three weeks later
01/02/91… SPX +1.2% three weeks later

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