Post-Fed – MarketTells.com

SPX recorded a 94% down volume session on Wednesday. When these lopsided volume days occur during options expiration week, there tends to be downside follow-through into Friday’s close. Below are the last thirty 90% down volume sessions (SPX components) during Monday-Thursday of options expiration week. The S&P was twice as likely to finish out the week at a lower level (up 9, down 21). Average gain 1%, average loss 1.8%…

SPX 90% Down Volume during Options Expiration Week (Mon-Thu)
12/18/24… SPX ???
04/15/24… SPX -1.9% at Friday’s close
03/14/24… SPX -0.6% at Friday’s close
02/13/24… SPX +1.0% at Friday’s close
08/15/23… SPX -1.5% at Friday’s close
01/18/23… SPX +2.3% at Friday’s close
12/15/22… SPX -1.1% at Friday’s close
09/13/22… SPX -1.5% at Friday’s close
06/13/22… SPX -2.0% at Friday’s close
05/18/22… SPX -0.6% at Friday’s close
05/12/20… SPX -0.2% at Friday’s close
03/16/20… SPX -3.4% at Friday’s close
08/12/19… SPX +0.2% at Friday’s close
05/13/19… SPX +1.7% at Friday’s close
08/17/17… SPX -0.2% at Friday’s close
09/13/16… SPX +0.6% at Friday’s close
01/13/16… SPX -0.5% at Friday’s close
12/17/15… SPX -1.8% at Friday’s close
08/20/15… SPX -3.2% at Friday’s close
06/19/13… SPX -2.2% at Friday’s close
04/17/13… SPX +0.2% at Friday’s close
05/17/12… SPX -0.7% at Friday’s close
12/12/11… SPX -1.4% at Friday’s close
11/14/11… SPX -2.9% at Friday’s close
08/18/11… SPX -1.5% at Friday’s close
07/11/11… SPX -0.3% at Friday’s close
06/15/11… SPX +0.5% at Friday’s close
11/16/10… SPX +1.8% at Friday’s close
08/19/10… SPX -0.4% at Friday’s close
05/18/10… SPX -3.0% at Friday’s close
12/17/09… SPX +0.6% at Friday’s close

NYSE TICK reflected extreme selling pressure post-Fed announcement, with over 65 1-minute bars below the -1000 level. That’s only the tenth occurrence since I began tracking this data, with prior occurrences often seeing further selling over the next 2-3 sessions…

SPX and TLT both down over 1% is another short-term negative sign, especially for Thursday’s session…

The one bright spot is the VIX 2-day RSI at 100. Two sessions later 1% moves 12-1, five sessions later 1% moves 17-1.

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