Pre-Fed – MarketTells.com

Volume was huge on Wednesday. NYSE volume exceeded its upper bollinger band. When this occurs right before a Fed announcement, stocks tend to rally short-term (although it is a small sample). Three sessions later, S&P was up 12, down 4 and average gain of 2.2% dwarfed the 0.4% average loss…

The S&P also made a new all-time high. When this occurs pre-Fed, stocks also tend to rally over the next 2-3 weeks. Average gain was 2x average loss and 1% moves were 19-2 three weeks out…

Tuesday was also the 4th negative Cumulative TICK reading in five sessions, triggering the short-term bullish setup outlined in this recent note…. https://www.markettells.com/2024/09/27/cumulative-tick-18/

BKX +10%. One-day gains in excess of 8% typically lead to a near-term selloff for the S&P500. Over the last 27 occurrences since 2008, the S&P was up 8 times (30%), down 19 times one day later. That’s significantly worse than the 55% random odds. Median loss of 1.4% was double the 0.7% median gain…

BKX +8%
11/09/20… SPX -0.1% next session
05/26/20… SPX +1.5% next session
04/17/20… SPX -1.8% next session
04/06/20… SPX -0.2% next session
03/26/20… SPX -3.4% next session
03/24/20… SPX +1.2% next session
03/13/20… SPX -12.0% next session
05/08/09… SPX -2.2% next session
05/06/09… SPX -1.3% next session
05/04/09… SPX -0.4% next session
04/21/09… SPX -0.8% next session
04/09/09… SPX +0.3% next session
03/23/09… SPX -2.0% next session
03/18/09… SPX -1.3% next session
03/12/09… SPX +0.8% next session
03/10/09… SPX +0.2% next session
02/24/09… SPX -1.1% next session
02/06/09… SPX +0.2% next session
01/28/09… SPX -3.3% next session
01/21/09… SPX -1.5% next session
12/16/08… SPX -1.0% next session
11/24/08… SPX +0.7% next session
10/28/08… SPX -1.1% next session
10/14/08… SPX -9.0% next session
10/10/08… SPX +11.6% next session
09/30/08… SPX -0.5% next session
09/19/08… SPX -3.8% next session

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