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One thing to watch for short-term is a close back below Monday’s low at SPY 510.27 within the next two days. SPY volume exceeded its upper Bollinger band on both Friday and Monday as the market traded lower. That sets up the potential for another significant move lower, but only if the second day’s low is clearly violated within days. It’s pretty unusual, given the last occurrence was in 2021. There have been ten instances of a down days cluster on heavy volume since then, but none led to an S&P close under the second day’s low.

Since SPY’s inception, there have been 16 days when this pattern did trigger. 10 (63%) led to a 2.5%+ drawdown within the next two sessions…

SPY Down, Volume > Upper Band 2x Last Three Days
SPY Closes Below Low of 2nd Volume Spike Within Two Days
12/01/21… SPY -0.4% intraday two sessions later
09/08/20… SPY -0.1% intraday two sessions later
02/25/20… SPY -4.8% intraday two sessions later
08/02/19… SPY -3.7% intraday next session
12/21/18… SPY -2.9% intraday two sessions later
08/21/15… SPY -8.3% intraday next session
12/15/14… SPY -0.8% intraday next session
10/13/14… SPY -3.1% intraday two sessions later
04/18/13… SPY -0.0% intraday next session
08/02/11… SPY -4.8% intraday two sessions later
01/21/10… SPY -2.6% intraday next session
10/02/09… SPY -0.0% intraday next session
03/05/07… SPY -0.0% intraday next session
09/20/01… SPY -5.6% intraday next session
09/06/01… SPY -3.1% intraday two sessions later
04/15/99… SPY -3.5% intraday two sessions later

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