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When an unfilled downside gap occurs on a jobs report Friday, the S&P was nearly twice as likely to continue lower the following session (up 6, down 11). Average loss of 2.2% was more than double the 0.8% average gain…

SPY Unfilled Downside Gap on Jobs Report Friday
08/02/24… SPX ???
03/04/22… SPX -3.0% next session
03/06/20… SPX -7.6% next session
02/02/18… SPX -4.1% next session
09/04/15… SPX +2.5% next session
07/06/12… SPX -0.2% next session
06/04/10… SPX -1.4% next session
01/04/08… SPX +0.3% next session
09/07/07… SPX -0.1% next session
08/06/04… SPX +0.1% next session
07/06/01… SPX +0.7% next session
03/09/01… SPX -4.3% next session
11/07/97… SPX -0.7% next session
07/05/96… SPX -0.8% next session
04/08/96… SPX -0.3% next session
03/08/96… SPX +1.0% next session
08/05/94… SPX +0.2% next session
05/06/94… SPX -1.2% next session

Two sharp down days in a row with the NDX above its 200-day average has been a short-term negative indication since 2000. NDX twice as likely to move lower over next three sessions…

But longer-term indications continue to suggest this selloff is not the beginning of a bear market. In addition to the recently triggered setups summarized here, another longer-term positive sign triggered Thursday when a component of our BondTimer model hit its highest level of the year. The last SEVENTY times this has occurred have ALL led to a higher S&P500 six months later, averaging a gain of 10%…

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