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The semiconductor index (SOX) outperformed NDX by 4% on Wednesday, the first 4% reading we’ve seen this year. Below are the last 30 occurrences of 4%+ outperformance days. Notice the stock market’s exceptionally poor performance over the longer-term, with the S&P up only 8 times (27%) and a 10% average loss. This is due to the fact that almost all occurrences (80%) were between October 2000 and October 2002. Hopefully, today will prove to be a one-off like in 2023 and 2019…
Not a particularly good sign to see bonds sharply higher on a Fed day. There have been 23 occurrences of a +1% TLT on a Fed day since inception in 2003, and the stock market’s near-term performance was quite poor. The S&P was up 7 times, down 16 times two sessions later, with only one 1% gain vs. ten 1% losses…
TLT +1% on an FOMC announcement day
07/31/24… SPX ???
12/13/23… SPX +0.3% two sessions later
11/01/23… SPX +2.9% two sessions later
03/22/23… SPX +0.9% two sessions later
09/21/22… SPX -2.6% two sessions later
06/15/22… SPX -3.0% two sessions later
06/10/20… SPX -4.7% two sessions later
10/30/19… SPX +0.7% two sessions later
03/20/19… SPX -0.8% two sessions later
12/19/18… SPX -3.6% two sessions later
06/14/17… SPX -0.2% two sessions later
03/15/17… SPX -0.3% two sessions later
07/27/16… SPX +0.3% two sessions later
09/17/15… SPX -1.2% two sessions later
03/18/15… SPX +0.4% two sessions later
01/28/15… SPX -0.4% two sessions later
09/18/13… SPX -0.9% two sessions later
09/21/11… SPX -2.6% two sessions later
03/15/11… SPX -0.6% two sessions later
09/21/10… SPX -1.3% two sessions later
03/18/09… SPX -3.3% two sessions later
12/16/08… SPX -3.1% two sessions later
12/11/07… SPX +0.7% two sessions later
06/30/04… SPX -1.4% two sessions later
Here’s a look at instances of an SPX +1.5% on a Fed day. Bit of a downside edge for the next session but otherwise not much here…
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