Copyright reminder: The following note is intended for subscribers. Redistribution in whole or in part is prohibited.

Mixed signals for the short-term.

On the positive side, our version of Standard & Poors Oscillator (NYSE version) closed just above 3.0 on Wednesday, a fairly high reading considering the 2%+ down day for the S&P500. This has occurred on 30 other sessions since 1990, and the S&P was over three times as likely to close higher the following session (up 23, down 7). 1% moves were 15-2. Average gain was 1.5%, average loss 1%.

SPX -2%, Standard & Poors Oscillator (NYSE) >3
(first occurrence in over three sessions)
07/24/24… SPX ???
11/09/22… SPX +5.5% next session
11/02/22… SPX -1.1% next session
06/11/20… SPX +1.3% next session
05/01/20… SPX +0.4% next session
04/21/20… SPX +2.3% next session
04/15/20… SPX +0.6% next session
06/21/12… SPX +0.7% next session
12/08/11… SPX +1.7% next session
10/31/11… SPX -2.8% next session
10/25/11… SPX +1.1% next session
09/02/11… SPX -0.7% next session
07/16/10… SPX +0.6% next session
05/11/09… SPX -0.1% next session
04/20/09… SPX +2.1% next session
04/14/09… SPX +1.3% next session
04/07/09… SPX +1.2% next session
03/24/09… SPX +1.0% next session
01/07/09… SPX +0.3% next session
12/18/08… SPX +0.3% next session
12/09/08… SPX +1.2% next session
02/05/08… SPX -0.8% next session
12/11/07… SPX +0.6% next session
05/19/03… SPX -0.1% next session
03/24/03… SPX +1.2% next session
11/26/02… SPX +2.8% next session
11/07/02… SPX -0.9% next session
08/23/02… SPX +0.8% next session
01/02/01… SPX +5.0% next session
04/19/99… SPX +1.3% next session
11/30/98… SPX +1.0% next session

But on the negative side, bonds closed sharply lower along with stocks. That has led to a lower S&P500 one day and one week later twice as often as a higher S&P, suggesting we’re probably not out of the woods yet. Interesting to note the FOMC meeting on July 31st falls just within that one-week time frame…

Copyright 2024 Yang Market Research - All Rights Reserved