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For only the 17th time since 2007, Cumulative NYSE TICK closed in negative territory a third consecutive session ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Prior instances led to a flat or down S&P over the next two sessions in all but two cases. Average loss was 2%…
Cumulative TICK Three Negative Closes Ahead of FOMC
06/11/24… SPX ???
09/20/22… SPX -2.5% two sessions later
06/14/22… SPX -1.8% two sessions later
12/14/21… SPX +0.8% two sessions later
10/29/19… SPX +0.0% two sessions later
12/18/18… SPX -3.1% two sessions later
09/25/18… SPX -0.1% two sessions later
01/30/18… SPX -0.0% two sessions later
12/12/17… SPX -0.5% two sessions later
11/01/16… SPX -1.1% two sessions later
06/14/16… SPX +0.1% two sessions later
12/16/14… SPX +4.5% two sessions later
09/20/11… SPX -6.0% two sessions later
08/08/11… SPX +0.1% two sessions later
03/14/11… SPX -3.1% two sessions later
09/15/08… SPX -3.0% two sessions later
06/24/08… SPX -2.4% two sessions later
The Semiconductor Index (SOX) notched a fresh all-time high ahead of the Fed, usually a positive intermediate-term indication. Over the last 19 occurrences since inception of the SOX index, the Nasdaq100 was higher one month later in every case but one. Average gain was 4%…
SOX 3mo High Day Before FOMC Announcement
06/11/24… NDX
12/12/23… NDX +2.9% one month later
06/13/23… NDX +4.5% one month later
11/02/21… NDX +0.1% one month later
03/19/19… NDX +4.5% one month later
10/31/17… NDX +1.9% one month later
09/19/17… NDX +2.1% one month later
07/26/16… NDX +2.4% one month later
06/17/14… NDX +2.6% one month later
03/18/14… NDX -4.7% one month later
12/17/13… NDX +3.5% one month later
09/17/13… NDX +2.9% one month later
06/18/13… NDX +2.7% one month later
04/30/13… NDX +4.3% one month later
01/24/12… NDX +6.6% one month later
11/02/10… NDX +1.6% one month later
09/22/09… NDX +1.1% one month later
12/21/98… NDX +9.9% one month later
11/16/98… NDX +12.2% one month later
05/22/95… NDX +8.2% one month later
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