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Here’s one interesting short-term angle on the recently discussed Dow Utilities RSI signal. Below are the same signals, except now we’re looking at the short-term performance of bonds over the next week. Over 29 occurrences since inception, TLT was up 24 times (83%) five sessions later, significantly above the 53% random odds. Big moves were usually to the upside, with 2% moves 7-0…

Dow Utilities 2-day RSI at 100 (rounded)
First occurrence in a month
03/30/22… TLT ???
03/29/21… TLT +1.7% one week later
10/06/20… TLT +0.8% one week later
06/03/20… TLT +0.8% one week later
01/15/20… TLT +0.9% one week later
09/24/19… TLT -0.2% one week later
05/23/19… TLT +3.3% one week later
03/13/19… TLT +0.7% one week later
06/22/18… TLT +1.0% one week later
07/21/17… TLT -1.4% one week later
05/25/17… TLT +1.9% one week later
06/30/16… TLT +3.4% one week later
03/15/16… TLT +0.1% one week later
02/03/16… TLT +3.8% one week later
12/26/14… TLT +4.0% one week later
06/05/14… TLT +0.6% one week later
07/15/13… TLT +1.0% one week later
04/29/11… TLT +1.3% one week later
07/15/10… TLT +0.5% one week later
10/31/07… TLT +0.8% one week later
02/05/07… TLT +0.1% one week later
10/18/06… TLT +0.1% one week later
07/24/06… TLT +0.6% one week later
06/13/05… TLT -0.2% one week later
02/04/05… TLT +0.2% one week later
12/20/04… TLT -1.2% one week later
12/19/03… TLT -1.0% one week later
05/16/03… TLT +2.3% one week later
03/21/03… TLT +2.0% one week later
12/17/02… TLT +2.4% one week later

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