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NYSE Cumulative TICK closed at +85,000 on Friday, the third consecutive session above the +50,000 level. That’s a long-term bullish indication. Over the last 30 closed signals since 2009, the S&P was higher one year later in every case but one. Average gain was 20%. This is the first signal of 2022 after seeing five signals in 2021. The open signals suggest the S&P will remain above 4400 in September/October and will move back above 4700 by year-end…

NYSE Cumulative TICK >+50,000 Three Days in a Row
03/18/22… SPX ???
12/23/21… SPX -5.6% (open – ends December 2022)
10/14/21… SPX +0.6% (open – ends October 2022)
09/23/21… SPX +0.3% (open – ends September 2022)
06/08/21… SPX +5.6% (open – ends June 2022)
03/11/21… SPX +8.1% one year later
11/17/20… SPX +29.9% one year later
06/03/20… SPX +34.3% one year later
03/26/20… SPX +51.1% one year later
01/08/19… SPX +26.4% one year later
03/29/17… SPX +11.9% one year later
12/07/16… SPX +17.7% one year later
06/30/16… SPX +15.5% one year later
06/03/16… SPX +16.1% one year later
04/20/16… SPX +12.1% one year later
03/29/16… SPX +14.8% one year later
03/03/16… SPX +19.6% one year later
10/06/15… SPX +9.1% one year later
12/19/14… SPX -2.4% one year later
02/11/14… SPX +13.7% one year later
10/18/13… SPX +9.1% one year later
06/28/13… SPX +22.0% one year later
04/25/13… SPX +17.6% one year later
01/18/13… SPX +24.1% one year later
01/03/13… SPX +25.5% one year later
11/20/12… SPX +28.4% one year later
07/03/12… SPX +19.4% one year later
08/30/11… SPX +16.3% one year later
07/26/10… SPX +20.0% one year later
02/18/10… SPX +20.7% one year later
01/11/10… SPX +10.7% one year later
09/08/09… SPX +7.2% one year later
07/15/09… SPX +17.6% one year later
06/26/09… SPX +16.9% one year later
04/02/09… SPX +42.3% one year later

Short-term, worth noting SPY volume was unusually light on Friday for a triple witching options expiration, coming in well below the 20-day average. Historically, light volume on triple witching is not a short-term positive. Over the last 30 occurrences since 2000, the S&P was up 9 times (30%), down 21 times one week later. That’s significantly worse than the 57% random odds. Average gain and loss were similar at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively…

SPY Volume <20d Average on Triple Witching Expiration
03/18/22… S&P5000 ??? one week later
03/16/18… S&P500 -6.0% one week later
09/21/12… S&P500 -1.3% one week later
06/15/12… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
09/16/11… S&P500 -6.5% one week later
03/18/11… S&P500 +2.7% one week later
12/17/10… S&P500 +1.1% one week later
09/17/10… S&P500 +2.1% one week later
06/18/10… S&P500 -3.7% one week later
09/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% one week later
06/19/09… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
03/20/09… S&P500 +6.2% one week later
12/19/08… S&P500 -2.1% one week later
03/20/08… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
12/21/07… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
09/21/07… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
03/16/07… S&P500 +3.5% one week later
06/16/06… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
03/17/06… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
12/16/05… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
03/18/05… S&P500 -1.3% one week later
09/17/04… S&P500 -1.6% one week later
06/18/04… S&P500 -0.1% one week later
09/19/03… S&P500 -3.8% one week later
06/20/03… S&P500 -2.0% one week later
12/20/02… S&P500 -1.8% one week later
03/15/02… S&P500 -1.5% one week later
12/21/01… S&P500 +0.3% one week later
09/15/00… S&P500 -1.2% one week later
06/16/00… S&P500 -1.6% one week later
03/17/00… S&P500 +4.3% one week later

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