Copyright reminder: The following research note is intended solely for the use of subscribers. Redistribution in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.

A higher S&P close today would tilt the odds in favor of a down market over the following week. When the S&P has closed higher on the day of an FOMC announcement and the following session, the S&P was more than twice as likely to decline over the next week. Over the last 30 occurrences, the SPX was up 8 times, down 22 times five sessions later. Average loss of 1.5% was nearly double the 0.8% average gain…

S&P500 Closes Higher Day of FOMC Announcement + Following Day
11/04/21… SPX -0.7% one week later
09/23/21… SPX -3.2% one week later
12/17/20… SPX -0.5% one week later
12/12/19… SPX +1.2% one week later
09/19/19… SPX -1.0% one week later
06/20/19… SPX -1.0% one week later
01/31/19… SPX +0.1% one week later
11/02/17… SPX +0.2% one week later
02/02/17… SPX +1.2% one week later
09/22/16… SPX -1.2% one week later
03/17/16… SPX -0.2% one week later
07/30/15… SPX -1.2% one week later
06/18/15… SPX -0.9% one week later
12/18/14… SPX +1.3% one week later
09/18/14… SPX -2.3% one week later
06/19/14… SPX -0.1% one week later
09/14/12… SPX -0.4% one week later
04/26/12… SPX -0.6% one week later
11/03/11… SPX -1.7% one week later
04/28/11… SPX -1.9% one week later
01/27/11… SPX +0.6% one week later
11/04/10… SPX -0.6% one week later
04/29/10… SPX -6.5% one week later
03/17/10… SPX +0.1% one week later
11/05/09… SPX +1.9% one week later
08/13/09… SPX -0.5% one week later
06/25/09… SPX -2.6% one week later
08/06/08… SPX -0.3% one week later
09/19/07… SPX -0.2% one week later
08/08/07… SPX -6.1% one week later

Copyright 2022 Yang Market Research - All Rights Reserved