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Some mixed messages from Wednesday’s session. A higher NDX close was paired with 2:1 negative breadth on the NASDAQ exchange. Over the last 30 occurrences of this pattern, the NDX was twice as likely to move lower over the next couple of sessions (up 10, down 20). Average gain and loss were both 1%…
NDX Up, NASDAQ Breadth 2:1 Negative
01/26/22… NDX ??? two sessions later
11/18/21… NDX -0.6% two sessions later
10/27/21… NDX +1.6% two sessions later
08/19/21… NDX +2.5% two sessions later
08/16/21… NDX -1.9% two sessions later
07/14/21… NDX -1.5% two sessions later
07/06/21… NDX -0.4% two sessions later
04/07/21… NDX +1.7% two sessions later
03/16/21… NDX -2.8% two sessions later
12/29/20… NDX +0.4% two sessions later
09/21/20… NDX -1.3% two sessions later
08/21/20… NDX +1.4% two sessions later
07/09/20… NDX -1.4% two sessions later
04/30/20… NDX -1.9% two sessions later
12/13/18… NDX -4.7% two sessions later
07/24/18… NDX -0.1% two sessions later
02/20/18… NDX -0.3% two sessions later
11/07/17… NDX -0.1% two sessions later
08/02/17… NDX -0.2% two sessions later
10/27/15… NDX +0.7% two sessions later
07/20/15… NDX -1.2% two sessions later
11/13/14… NDX +0.0% two sessions later
09/30/14… NDX -1.6% two sessions later
03/20/12… NDX -0.2% two sessions later
03/14/12… NDX +0.2% two sessions later
09/19/11… NDX -2.2% two sessions later
05/02/11… NDX -0.7% two sessions later
07/12/10… NDX +1.8% two sessions later
01/26/10… NDX -1.8% two sessions later
11/10/09… NDX -0.0% two sessions later
07/08/09… NDX +0.6% two sessions later
On the plus side, VIX closed just high enough to send the VIX 2-day RSI to 100 on a rounded basis. That’s a bullish indication looking out one week as outlined in this note from Tuesday. This suggests further weakness in the Thursday-Friday time frame could be a short-term buying opportunity.
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