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The S&P500 triggered a bullish five-day thrust at Tuesday’s close. Over 27 closed signals since 1980, the S&P500 was higher one year later in every case but one. The one loss was under 1%, while the average gain was 18%…

SPX ADT5 over 75
12/28/21… SPX ??? one year later
06/08/20… SPX +30.8% one year later, max dd 7.1%
06/07/19… SPX +12.5% one year later, max dd 22.1%
01/10/19… SPX +25.8% one year later, max dd 0.5%
02/15/18… SPX +1.8% one year later, max dd 13.9%
10/05/15… SPX +8.2% one year later, max dd 8.0%
12/23/14… SPX -0.9% one year later, max dd 10.3%
07/11/13… SPX +17.5% one year later, max dd 2.7%
03/13/12… SPX +11.8% one year later, max dd 8.5%
12/27/11… SPX +10.8% one year later, max dd 1.3%
10/10/11… SPX +20.6% one year later, max dd 3.0%
09/16/11… SPX +20.2% one year later, max dd 9.6%
08/29/11… SPX +16.5% one year later, max dd 9.2%
07/01/11… SPX +1.9% one year later, max dd 18.0%
07/13/10… SPX +19.9% one year later, max dd 4.4%
10/09/09… SPX +8.8% one year later, max dd 4.6%
09/10/09… SPX +6.3% one year later, max dd 2.1%
07/16/09… SPX +13.2% one year later, max dd 0.0%
03/18/09… SPX +46.8% one year later, max dd 3.3%
01/06/09… SPX +21.7% one year later, max dd 27.6%
11/28/08… SPX +22.3% one year later, max dd 24.5%
05/05/97… SPX +34.4% one year later, max dd 1.8%
04/15/92… SPX +7.7% one year later, max dd 3.7%
12/27/91… SPX +8.2% one year later, max dd 2.9%
01/08/87… SPX +1.5% one year later, max dd 13.0%
08/06/84… SPX +17.2% one year later, max dd 0.6%
10/11/82… SPX +27.0% one year later, max dd 1.1%
08/20/82… SPX +44.7% one year later, max dd 0.0%

Nearly half saw a 7%+ drawdown. Given the strong full-year results, such a drawdown in 2022 should be considered a buying opportunity in anticipation that the decline will not stick into year-end.

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