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It’s usually a bullish sign for tech when SOX outperforms NDX three days in a row and by over 1% on the third day (as was the case Tuesday). Over the last 30 occurrences stretching back to 2012, the NDX was up 25 times (83%), down 5 times two weeks later vs. 64% random odds. Note the big average gain of 4% and the small average loss of only 1%. 2% moves were an impressive 17-1. This suggests weakness into Thursday would be a buying opportunity…

After Underperforming, SOX Outperforms NDX Three Days
Today’s Outperformance >1% (first occurrence in 1wk)
12/21/21… NDX ??? two weeks later
09/13/21… NDX -1.5% two weeks later
07/30/21… NDX +1.2% two weeks later
07/21/21… NDX +1.6% two weeks later
03/26/21… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
02/01/21… NDX +4.0% two weeks later
01/04/21… NDX +2.4% two weeks later
11/23/20… NDX +6.1% two weeks later
07/23/20… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
06/04/20… NDX +4.0% two weeks later
04/28/20… NDX +5.0% two weeks later
03/23/20… NDX +15.3% two weeks later
12/12/19… NDX +3.6% two weeks later
06/26/19… NDX +3.5% two weeks later
01/11/19… NDX +1.5% two weeks later
11/15/18… NDX +0.9% two weeks later
10/30/18… NDX +0.3% two weeks later
12/18/17… NDX +0.9% two weeks later
11/06/17… NDX -0.1% two weeks later
12/06/16… NDX +3.5% two weeks later
09/29/16… NDX -0.7% two weeks later
07/26/16… NDX +2.7% two weeks later
03/18/16… NDX +2.3% two weeks later
01/21/16… NDX +0.6% two weeks later
10/22/15… NDX +4.4% two weeks later
03/02/15… NDX -2.5% two weeks later
10/16/14… NDX +8.9% two weeks later
06/03/14… NDX +1.4% two weeks later
12/17/13… NDX +2.7% two weeks later
07/25/12… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
06/29/12… NDX -1.5% two weeks later

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