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When the S&P closes down on the last day of the month but is still up month-to-date, there’s a tendency for stocks to rally on the first day of the new month. 24 out of the last 30 occurrences (80%) led to a higher S&P500 one day later, a decent edge over the 55% random odds…
SPX Down Last Day of Month, Still Up Month-to-Date
07/30/21… SPX ??? next session
04/30/21… SPX +0.3% next session
02/26/21… SPX +2.4% next session
11/30/20… SPX +1.1% next session
08/31/20… SPX +0.8% next session
04/30/20… SPX -2.8% next session
11/29/19… SPX -1.1% next session
10/31/19… SPX +1.0% next session
07/31/19… SPX -0.6% next session
02/28/19… SPX +0.8% next session
09/28/18… SPX +0.2% next session
05/31/18… SPX +1.7% next session
04/30/18… SPX +1.2% next session
12/29/17… SPX +0.8% next session
07/31/17… SPX +0.2% next session
05/31/17… SPX +0.8% next session
04/28/17… SPX +0.2% next session
02/28/17… SPX +1.4% next session
01/31/17… SPX +0.0% next session
12/30/16… SPX +0.9% next session
11/30/16… SPX -0.4% next session
05/31/16… SPX +0.1% next session
04/29/16… SPX +0.8% next session
03/31/16… SPX +0.6% next session
11/30/15… SPX +1.1% next session
10/30/15… SPX +1.2% next session
07/31/15… SPX -0.3% next session
05/29/15… SPX +0.2% next session
04/30/15… SPX +1.1% next session
02/27/15… SPX +0.6% next session
11/28/14… SPX -0.7% next session
But indications also suggest a down open on Monday. When QQQ posts an unfilled downside gap on a Friday, there’s a tendency for further downside at Monday’s open…
QQQ Unfilled Downside Gap on a Friday
05/01/20… QQQ opens -0.5% next session, closes +1.3%
03/06/20… QQQ opens -7.0% next session, closes -6.8%
08/02/19… QQQ opens -2.1% next session, closes -3.6%
05/31/19… QQQ opens -0.3% next session, closes -2.1%
12/14/18… QQQ opens -0.4% next session, closes -2.2%
11/09/18… QQQ opens -0.7% next session, closes -3.0%
08/10/18… QQQ opens +0.2% next session, closes -0.1%
09/09/16… QQQ opens -0.6% next session, closes +1.8%
06/24/16… QQQ opens -0.7% next session, closes -2.0%
06/10/16… QQQ opens -0.6% next session, closes -0.9%
04/22/16… QQQ opens -0.3% next session, closes -0.0%
12/18/15… QQQ opens +1.0% next session, closes +1.0%
12/11/15… QQQ opens +0.2% next session, closes +0.7%
11/13/15… QQQ opens -0.1% next session, closes +1.4%
09/18/15… QQQ opens +0.6% next session, closes +0.3%
09/04/15… QQQ opens +1.9% next session, closes +2.8%
08/21/15… QQQ opens -8.0% next session, closes -3.8%
06/12/15… QQQ opens -0.7% next session, closes -0.5%
04/17/15… QQQ opens +0.5% next session, closes +1.5%
07/25/14… QQQ opens +0.1% next session, closes +0.1%
07/19/13… QQQ opens +0.4% next session, closes +0.3%
04/05/13… QQQ opens +0.0% next session, closes +0.5%
12/21/12… QQQ opens -0.2% next session, closes -0.3%
06/01/12… QQQ opens +0.3% next session, closes +0.8%
05/04/12… QQQ opens -0.6% next session, closes +0.1%
05/14/10… QQQ opens +0.2% next session, closes +0.4%
11/27/09… QQQ opens -0.2% next session, closes +0.1%
06/12/09… QQQ opens -1.0% next session, closes -2.2%
02/29/08… QQQ opens -0.1% next session, closes -0.7%
01/04/08… QQQ opens +0.0% next session, closes -0.3%
QQQ opened up 12 times (40%) vs. 56% random odds. Average gain at open was 0.5%, average loss at open was 1.3%.
Worth noting that all but two up opens also led to up closes, and the two losses were minor. Most down opens also led to down closes.
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