SPX Volume Pattern + SOX Strength

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S&P500 component volume totaled 2.8 billion shares on Monday, exceeding the upper bollinger band for volume. When a high-volume session is followed by higher highs, lows and closes over the next two sessions, the market tends to keep trending higher over the next two weeks. 25 out of the last 30 occurrences (83%) led to a higher S&P500 ten sessions later, a decent edge over the 60% random odds. Average loss was only 0.9%, while the average gain was three times as large at 2.7%…

SPX Volume Over Upper Band,
SPX Higher High, Low & Close Next Two Days
07/21/21… SPX ??? two weeks later
06/22/21… SPX +2.6% two weeks later
11/03/20… SPX +7.1% two weeks later
08/04/20… SPX +2.5% two weeks later
06/02/20… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
11/04/19… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
02/04/19… SPX +2.0% two weeks later
06/04/18… SPX +1.0% two weeks later
05/04/15… SPX +0.7% two weeks later
12/23/14… SPX -1.0% two weeks later
10/17/14… SPX +7.0% two weeks later
12/24/13… SPX +0.3% two weeks later
05/22/12… SPX -0.1% two weeks later
03/16/12… SPX +0.3% two weeks later
10/06/11… SPx +4.3% two weeks later
06/28/11… SPX +1.6% two weeks later
06/21/11… SPX +3.4% two weeks later
10/18/10… SPX -0.0% two weeks later
12/22/09… SPX +2.1% two weeks later
07/27/09… SPX +2.5% two weeks later
11/25/08… SPX +4.9% two weeks later
07/17/08… SPX +0.6% two weeks later
10/04/04… SPX -1.9% two weeks later
06/02/03… SPX +4.5% two weeks later
03/19/03… SPX +0.8% two weeks later
03/14/03… SPX +3.6% two weeks later
09/25/01… SPX +4.4% two weeks later
03/26/01… SPX -1.3% two weeks later
03/03/00… SPX +3.9% two weeks later
07/02/99… SPX +1.2% two weeks later
06/18/99… SPX +3.6% two weeks later

Another positive is the action in semiconductor stocks. It’s usually a bullish sign for tech when SOX outperforms NDX three days in a row and by over 1% on the third day (as is the case today). Over the last 30 occurrences stretching back to 2010, the NDX was up 25 times (83%), down 5 times two weeks later vs. 64% random odds. Note the average gain of 3.9%, nearly four times the 1.2% average loss. 2% moves were an impressive 18-1…

After Underperforming, SOX Outperforms NDX Three Days
Today’s Outperformance >1% (first occurrence in 1wk)
07/21/21… NDX ??? two weeks later
03/26/21… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
02/01/21… NDX +4.0% two weeks later
01/04/21… NDX +2.4% two weeks later
11/23/20… NDX +6.1% two weeks later
07/23/20… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
06/04/20… NDX +4.0% two weeks later
04/28/20… NDX +5.0% two weeks later
03/23/20… NDX +15.3% two weeks later
12/12/19… NDX +3.6% two weeks later
06/26/19… NDX +3.5% two weeks later
01/11/19… NDX +1.5% two weeks later
11/15/18… NDX +0.9% two weeks later
10/30/18… NDX +0.3% two weeks later
12/18/17… NDX +0.9% two weeks later
11/06/17… NDX -0.1% two weeks later
12/06/16… NDX +3.5% two weeks later
09/29/16… NDX -0.7% two weeks later
07/26/16… NDX +2.7% two weeks later
03/18/16… NDX +2.3% two weeks later
01/21/16… NDX +0.6% two weeks later
10/22/15… NDX +4.4% two weeks later
03/02/15… NDX -2.5% two weeks later
10/16/14… NDX +8.9% two weeks later
06/03/14… NDX +1.4% two weeks later
12/17/13… NDX +2.7% two weeks later
07/25/12… NDX +6.5% two weeks later
06/29/12… NDX -1.5% two weeks later
02/16/12… NDX +1.9% two weeks later
12/22/11… NDX +3.7% two weeks later
05/21/10… NDX -1.4% two weeks later

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