Index Model 2.0 Year-by-Year

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Below we look at the new index model 2.0 on a year-by-year basis., beginning with the model’s return vs. buy & hold and ending with the maximum loss sustained that year vs the S&P. A primary goal of the model is keeping losses to a minimum. Note that the model was never down in excess of 10% in any calendar year, and rarely was down more than 5%. In contrast, there were ten years in which the S&P was down at least 10%. Overall, the model suffered only two down years, both in the single digits. compared to eight down years for the S&P500. Owning the S&P only when the model was long generated nearly twice the return of buy & hold (+2,184% for the model vs. +1,103% for b&h)…

Year-by-Year Index Model 2.0 Performance trading S&P500 vs Buy & Hold SPX
2021: Model +6.6%, S&P500 +15.2%….. Max Loss Model -1.5%, S&P -1.5% (OPEN)
2020: Model +9.5%, S&P500 +16.3%….. Max Loss Model -8.9%, S&P -30.8%
2019: Model +11.4%, S&P500 +28.9%… Max Loss Model -0.4%, S&P -2.4%
2018: Model +0.1%, S&P500 -6.2%…….. Max Loss Model -5.0%, S&P -12.1%
2017: Model +19.2%, S&P500 +19.4%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2016: Model +15.6%, S&P500 +9.5%….. Max Loss Model -0.8%, S&P -10.5%
2015: Model +0.0%, S&P500 -0.7%…….. Max Loss Model -5.3%, S&P -9.3%
2014: Model +8.2%, S&P500 +11.4%….. Max Loss Model -2.1%, S&P -5.8%
2013: Model +25.6%, S&P500 +29.6%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2012: Model +18.5%, S&P500 +13.4%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2011: Model +7.3%, S&P500 +0.0%……. Max Loss Model -1.2%, S&P -12.6%
2010: Model +29.0%, S&P500 +12.8%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -8.3%
2009: Model +35.7%, S&P500 +23.5%… Max Loss Model -4.3%, S&P -25.1%
2008: Model +0.0%, S&P500 -38.5%…. ..Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -48.8%
2007: Model +6.4%, S&P500 +3.5%……. Max Loss Model -4.8%, S&P -3.1%
2006: Model +10.8%, S&P500 +13.6%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -2.0%
2005: Model +0.7%, S&P500 +3.0%……. Max Loss Model -4.0%, S&P -6.1%
2004: Model +10.8%, S&P500 +9.0%….. Max Loss Model -0.2%, S&P -4.4%
2003: Model +20.1%, S&P500 +26.4%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -9.0%
2002: Model -6.4%, S&P500 -23.4%…… Max Loss Model -7.7%, S&P -32.4%
2001: Model +4.8%, S&P500 -13.0%….. Max Loss Model -4.1%, S&P -26.9%
2000: Model +0.0%, S&P500 -10.1%….. Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -13.9%
1999: Model +1.9%, S&P500 +19.5%…. Max Loss Model -1.4%, S&P -1.4%
1998: Model +25.7%, S&P500 +26.7%… Max Loss Model -4.4%, S&P -4.4%
1997: Model +16.3%, S&P500 +31.0%… Max Loss Model -0.5%, S&P -0.5%
1996: Model +13.6%, S&P500 +20.3%… Max Loss Model -3.4%, S&P -2.8%
1995: Model +27.8%, S&P500 +34.1%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
1994: Model +0.8%, S&P500 -1.5%……. Max Loss Model -2.9%, S&P -5.9%
1993: Model +8.9%, S&P500 +7.1%.…. Max Loss Model -1.5%, S&P -1.5%
1992: Model -3.7%, S&P500 +4.5%……. Max Loss Model -4.6%, S&P -5.4%
1991: Model +10.5%, S&P500 +26.3%… Max Loss Model -5.7%, S&P -5.7%
1990: Model +8.0%, S&P500 -8.2%…….. Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -17.9%

The hybrid version buys either the S&P or NDX when the model is long depending on which components are activated. This version has also had just two losing years since 1990, both single digits. Max loss never exceeded 15%. Overall, the hybrid version gained +5,173%, not far behind the +6,347% for buying & holding the NASDAQ100 and far exceeding the +1,103 for buying and holding the S&P500…

Year-by-Year Index Model 2.0 Performance trading Hybrid vs Buy & Hold SPX
2021: Hybrid Model +8.9%, S&P500 +15.2%..… Max Loss Model -2.1%, S&P -1.5% (OPEN)
2020: Hybrid Model +21.1%, S&P500 +16.3%… Max Loss Model -3.4%, S&P -30.8%
2019: Hybrid Model +17.8%, S&P500 +28.9%… Max Loss Model -1.3%, S&P -2.4%
2018: Hybrid Model +0.1%, S&P500 -6.2%……… Max Loss Model -2.2%, S&P -12.1%
2017: Hybrid Model +25.1%, S&P500 +19.4%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2016: Hybrid Model +17.3%, S&P500 +9.5%….. Max Loss Model -0.8%, S&P -10.5%
2015: Hybrid Model +0.5%, S&P500 -0.7%……… Max Loss Model -5.1%, S&P -9.3%
2014: Hybrid Model +11.1%, S&P500 +11.4%… Max Loss Model -5.9%, S&P -5.8%
2013: Hybrid Model +29.3%, S&P500 +29.6%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2012: Hybrid Model +26.8%, S&P500 +13.4%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
2011: Hybrid Model +4.9%, S&P500 +0.0%…….. Max Loss Model -1.0%, S&P -12.6%
2010: Hybrid Model +37.7%, S&P500 +12.8%… Max Loss Model -1.5%, S&P -8.3%
2009: Hybrid Model +36.6%, S&P500 +23.5%… Max Loss Model -3.1%, S&P -25.1%
2008: Hybrid Model +0.0%, S&P500 -38.5%…… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -48.8%
2007: Hybrid Model +7.6%, S&P500 +3.5%……. Max Loss Model -4.2%, S&P -3.1%
2006: Hybrid Model +11.4%, S&P500 +13.6%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -2.0%
2005: Hybrid Model -2.6%, S&P500 +3.0%…….. Max Loss Model -9.4%, S&P -6.1%
2004: Hybrid Model +12.5%, S&P500 +9.0%…. Max Loss Model -3.2%, S&P -4.4%
2003: Hybrid Model +27.7%, S&P500 +26.4%… Max Loss Model -0.3%, S&P -9.0%
2002: Hybrid Model -9.2%, S&P500 -23.4%……. Max Loss Model -13.9%, S&P -32.4%
2001: Hybrid Model +4.8%, S&P500 -13.0%..… Max Loss Model -7.7%, S&P -26.9%
2000: Hybrid Model +0.0%, S&P500 -10.1%.….. Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -13.9%
1999: Hybrid Model +3.0%, S&P500 +19.5%..… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -1.4%
1998: Hybrid Model +40.5%, S&P500 +26.7%… Max Loss Model -3.5%, S&P -4.4%
1997: Hybrid Model +19.0%, S&P500 +31.0%… Max Loss Model -0.7%, S&P -0.5%
1996: Hybrid Model +24.3%, S&P500 +20.3%… Max Loss Model -10.7%, S&P -2.8%
1995: Hybrid Model +29.8%, S&P500 +34.1%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -0.0%
1994: Hybrid Model +0.8%, S&P500 -1.5%……… Max Loss Model -5.7%, S&P -5.9%
1993: Hybrid Model +8.9%, S&P500 +7.1%.…… Max Loss Model -5.5%, S&P -1.5%
1992: Hybrid Model +1.4, S&P500 +4.5%………. Max Loss Model -2.2%, S&P -5.4%
1991: Hybrid Model +18.0%, S&P500 +26.3%… Max Loss Model -4.4%, S&P -5.7%
1990: Hybrid Model +10.1%, S&P500 -8.2%…… Max Loss Model -0.0%, S&P -17.9%

Finally, here is the model’s performance trading the NASDAQ100 in place of the S&P500. Again only two losing years, both single-digits. Max loss was limited to 15%, and all but two years max loss was under 10%. By contrast there were 13 years in which the NDX was down 10%+. Overall the model gained +11,781%, nearly doubling the +6,347% for buying and holding the NASDAQ100…

Year-by-Year Index Model 2.0 Performance trading NASDAQ100 vs Buy & Hold NDX
2021: Model +4.6%, NASDAQ100 +13.9%…… Max Loss Model -2.1%, NDX -4.6% (OPEN)
2020: Model +38.8%, NASDAQ100 +47.6%… Max Loss Model -3.4%, NDX -19.9%
2019: Model +16.1%, NASDAQ100 +38.0%… Max Loss Model -1.3%, NDX -2.9%
2018: Model +3.4%, NASDAQ100 -1.0%…….. Max Loss Model -2.2%, NDX -7.8%
2017: Model +33.1, NASDAQ100 +31.5%..… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -0.0%
2016: Model +13.6%, NASDAQ100 +5.9%.… Max Loss Model -0.8%, NDX -14.1%
2015: Model +5.6%, NASDAQ100 +8.4%.…… Max Loss Model -5.1%, NDX -5.2%
2014: Model +9.5%, NASDAQ100 +17.9%..… Max Loss Model -5.9%, NDX -4.2%
2013: Model +28.3%, NASDAQ100 +35.0%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -0.0%
2012: Model +25.2%, NASDAQ100 +16.8%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -0.0%
2011: Model +4.9%, NASDAQ100 +2.7%…….. Max Loss Model -1.0%, NDX -8.1%
2010: Model +35.8%, NASDAQ100 +19.2%… Max Loss Model -1.5%, NDX -7.1%
2009: Model +42.6%, NASDAQ100 +53.5%… Max Loss Model -3.1%, NDX -13.9%
2008: Model +0.0%, NASDAQ100 -41.9%…… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -50.3%
2007: Model +19.4%, NASDAQ100 +18.7…… Max Loss Model -4.2%, NDX -2.5%
2006: Model +13.8%, NASDAQ100 +6.8%..… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -11.8%
2005: Model -5.9%, NASDAQ100 +1.5%……… Max Loss Model -9.4%, NDX -13.2%
2004: Model +13.2%, NASDAQ100 +10.4%… Max Loss Model -3.2%, NDX -11.1%
2003: Model +28.8%, NASDAQ100 +49.1%… Max Loss Model -0.3%, NDX -3.3%
2002: Model -7.2%, NASDAQ100 -37.6%……. Max Loss Model -13.9%, NDX -49.0%
2001: Model +10.4%, NASDAQ100 -32.7%… Max Loss Model -7.7%, NDX -51.9%
2000: Model +0.0%, NASDAQ100 -36.8%……. Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -40.4%
1999: Model +12.3%, NASDAQ100 +102.0%.. Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -0.0%
1998: Model +51.1%, NASDAQ100 +85.3%.… Max Loss Model -3.5%, NDX -3.5%
1997: Model +9.9%, NASDAQ100 +20.6%…… Max Loss Model -0.7%, NDX -4.6%
1996: Model +25.2%, NASDAQ100 +42.5%… Max Loss Model -10.7%, NDX -7.3%
1995: Model +49.3%, NASDAQ100 +42.5%… Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -1.6%
1994: Model +4.7%, NASDAQ100 +1.5%…….. Max Loss Model -5.7%, NDX -11.7%
1993: Model +11.4%, NASDAQ100 +10.6%…. Max Loss Model -5.5%, NDX -9.1%
1992: Model +3.7%, NASDAQ100 +8.9%…….. Max Loss Model -2.2%, NDX -12.3%
1991: Model +26.6%, NASDAQ100 +65.0%… Max Loss Model -4.4%, NDX -4.4%
1990: Model +17.2%, NASDAQ100 -11.9%…. Max Loss Model -0.0%, NDX -27.5%

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