10-day TICK – MarketTells.com

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Cumulative NYSE TICK has been mentioned in a variety of forms over the past few weeks because it’s been off-the-charts positive. This daily summation of 1-minute NYSE TICK readings from open to close has now registered 20 positive sessions out of the past 21. The 10-day sum exceeded +500,000 Friday, something only seen on a handful of occasions in the last decade. Most of the time, and especially in recent years, the market has maintained a steady upward course in the 1-2 months following a +500,000 reading. It hardly even looked back over the last eight occurrences, with a max drawdown less than 1% over the first month. 1% from Friday’s close is 4205, suggesting the 4200 area will be an interesting level to watch for potential support heading into mid-July. Over the remaining eight occurrences, there were three with more than a 3% drawdown. Two of those three led to significant declines in the first month. 3% below Friday’s close is 4120.

10-day Cumulative TICK >+500,000 (first time in a week)
06/11/21… SPX ???
05/28/20… SPX -0.7% one month later, +6.2% two months later, 0.9% max DD
01/08/19… SPX +5.1% one month later, +8.1% two months later, 0.0% max DD
03/03/16… SPX +4.0% one month later, +3.6% two months later, 0.7% max DD
10/15/15… SPX +1.1% one month later, -0.6% two months later, 0.2% max DD
02/20/14… SPX +1.8% one month later, +1.4% two months later, 0.2% max DD
10/23/13… SPX +2.0% one month later, +3.6% two months later, 0.0% max DD
05/01/13… SPX +4.5% one month later, +1.9% two months later, 0.9% max DD
01/10/13… SPX +3.1% one month later, +5.7% two months later, 0.1% max DD
07/06/12… SPX +2.7% one month later, +3.8% two months later, 1.5% max DD
08/02/10… SPX -6.8% one month later, +1.9% two months later, 7.0% max DD
02/24/10… SPX +5.7% one month later, +9.4% two months later, 0.2% max DD
09/15/09… SPX +2.0% one month later, +3.8% two months later, 2.6% max DD
07/21/09… SPX +3.7% one month later, +12.0% two months later, 0.1% max DD
05/04/09… SPX +4.1% one month later, +1.3% two months later, 2.7% max DD
03/23/09… SPX +3.3% one month later, +10.4% two months later, 4.3% max DD
01/05/09… SPX -9.6% one month later, -23.1% two months later, 13.2% max DD