Copyright reminder: The following research note is intended solely for the use of subscribers. Redistribution in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.

SPX volume and NASDAQ volume were both down slightly compared to Thursday, noteworthy given the decent selloff. Semiconductors (SOX) were particularly weak, dropping over 2.5%. When that’s occurred on NASDAQ volume that’s less than the previous day, semis tend to bounce over the short-term…

SOX -2.5%, NASDAQ Volume Down vs. Previous Session
04/30/21… SOX ??? two sessions later
04/19/21… SOX +1.1% two sessions later
03/08/21… SOX +4.2% two sessions later
03/02/21… SOX -7.8% two sessions later
02/22/21… SOX +2.6% two sessions later
11/10/20… SOX +2.3% two sessions later
10/02/20… SOX +2.7% two sessions later
09/08/20… SOX +1.4% two sessions later
05/21/20… SOX +1.7% two sessions later
05/01/20… SOX +2.7% two sessions later
04/30/20… SOX -4.0% two sessions later
04/15/20… SOX +3.5% two sessions later
04/01/20… SOX +1.1% two sessions later
03/16/20… SOX +2.2% two sessions later
03/11/20… SOX -1.2% two sessions later
06/14/19… SOX +3.7% two sessions later
05/20/19… SOX -0.0% two sessions later
01/22/19… SOX +5.1% two sessions later
12/24/18… SOX +6.6% two sessions later
12/07/18… SOX +2.0% two sessions later
11/19/18… SOX +0.6% two sessions later
11/12/18… SOX +1.7% two sessions later
09/06/18… SOX +0.7% two sessions later
06/26/18… SOX -2.1% two sessions later
04/02/18… SOX +3.3% two sessions later
06/27/16… SOX +4.8% two sessions later
10/29/15… SOX +1.8% two sessions later
07/08/15… SOX +0.6% two sessions later
06/29/15… SOX +0.6% two sessions later
10/09/14… SOX -8.9% two sessions later
07/17/14… SOX +1.5% two sessions later

Over the last 30 occurrences, 24 (80%) led to a higher SOX close two sessions later, a decent edge over the 58% random odds. However, when this signal is wrong it tends to be really wrong. Average loss of 4% is nearly double the 2.4% average gain.

Copyright 2021 Yang Market Research - All Rights Reserved