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The SPX 3-day Advance-Decline Thrust topped 80 on Monday, the fourth time in the last year we’ve seen an ADT3 over 80. The S&P has a historically strong track record of trading higher in the year following such an elevated reading. From 1990 to present, this pattern has triggered on 45 separate occasions. 42 (93%) led to a higher SPX one year later, averaging a gain of 14.6%. Notice this pattern has become much more frequent in the last ten years. From 1990 to 2009 there were only 13 occurrences. But in the last ten years we’ve seen 32, or more than double the cases in half the time. So far the increased frequency hasn’t hurt results, with only one minor loss over those recent 32 occurrences. Interesting to note that two of the four open signals occurred in the low 2800’s, suggesting that could remain a floor for stocks heading into spring 2020.

SPX ADT3 >80 (first time in a month)
08/19/19… SPX ??? one year later (2923)
03/13/19… SPX ??? one year later (2810)
01/08/19… SPX ??? one year later (2574)
11/07/18… SPX ??? one year later (2813)
07/09/18… SPX +7.5% one year later
04/05/18… SPX +8.6% one year later
06/30/16… SPX +15.5% one year later
02/17/16… SPX +21.9% one year later
12/23/15… SPX +9.5% one year later
08/28/15… SPX +9.6% one year later
07/13/15… SPX +2.5% one year later
12/19/14… SPX -2.4% one year later
10/21/14… SPX +4.0% one year later
04/01/14… SPX +9.2% one year later
09/18/13… SPX +16.6% one year later
06/27/13… SPX +21.6% one year later
01/03/13… SPX +25.5% one year later
10/17/12… SPX +19.4% one year later
03/09/12… SPX +13.4% one year later
11/30/11… SPX +13.0% one year later
08/15/11… SPX +16.6% one year later
06/21/11… SPX +4.6% one year later
03/21/11… SPX +8.3% one year later
12/03/10… SPX +1.6% one year later
09/03/10… SPX +6.3% one year later
07/08/10… SPX +26.4% one year later
11/09/09… SPX +11.0% one year later
08/21/09… SPX +4.0% one year later
07/15/09… SPX +17.6% one year later
06/01/09… SPX +13.6% one year later
03/12/09… SPX +53.2% one year later
01/02/09… SPX +21.6% one year later

11/25/08… SPX +29.5% one year later
02/26/08… SPX -44.6% one year later
03/21/07… SPX -7.4% one year later
05/18/05… SPX +6.4% one year later
08/18/04… SPX +11.4% one year later
09/02/03… SPX +8.2% one year later
03/17/03… SPX +28.7% one year later
10/14/02… SPX +24.7% one year later
08/08/02… SPX +8.0% one year later
04/30/97… SPX +38.7% one year later
08/02/96… SPX +43.0% one year later
12/26/91… SPX +8.5% one year later
10/22/90… SPX +23.9% one year later

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