SPX vs. SOX – MarketTells.com

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Semiconductors down for a sixth day in a row, sending the SOX 2-day RSI into oversold territory under 2.0. Meanwhile, the S&P500 is oblivious as the index continues to run 1% above its 20-day average. That type of strength in the face of weak semis is really unusual. Just looking for an S&P above its 20-day while the SOX 2-day RSI is under 2.0 only turns up fifteen occurrences since inception of the SOX index. Stocks generally did well in the weeks to follow, with the S&P500 up 12 times, down 4 times two weeks later. Three of those four losses were essentially flat (under 0.5%), leaving 0.5% moves 10-1. Average gain was 2.3%, average loss 1.4%…

SOX 2-day RSI <2, SPX > 20-day Average
08/12/21… SPX ??? two weeks later
08/17/18… SPX +1.8% two weeks later
12/01/16… SPX +3.2% two weeks later
07/24/13… SPX +0.3% two weeks later
09/25/12… SPX -0.0% two weeks later
08/11/09… SPX +3.4% two weeks later
05/13/09… SPX +2.6% two weeks later
01/18/07… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
03/13/06… SPX +1.4% two weeks later
12/09/03… SPX +3.4% two weeks later
03/31/03… SPX +4.4% two weeks later
05/24/02… SPX -4.9% two weeks later
05/21/98… SPX -0.1% two weeks later
10/22/96… SPX +1.1% two weeks later
05/23/96… SPX -0.4% two weeks later
03/04/96… SPX +0.3% two weeks later
11/20/95… SPX +3.5% two weeks later

Semiconductors generally did well too, although their performance was more uneven…

SOX 2-day RSI <2, SPX > 20-day Average
08/12/21… SOX ??? two weeks later
08/17/18… SOX +5.9% two weeks later
12/01/16… SOX +8.8% two weeks later
07/24/13… SOX -0.1% two weeks later
09/25/12… SOX -1.7% two weeks later
08/11/09… SOX +3.4% two weeks later
05/13/09… SOX +13.5% two weeks later
01/18/07… SOX +1.8% two weeks later
03/13/06… SOX +0.8% two weeks later
12/09/03… SOX +4.4% two weeks later
03/31/03… SOX +3.2% two weeks later
05/24/02… SOX -12.5% two weeks later
05/21/98… SOX -7.5% two weeks later
10/22/96… SOX +3.6% two weeks later
05/23/96… SOX -1.1% two weeks later
03/04/96… SOX +7.1% two weeks later
11/20/95… SOX +1.7% two weeks later

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