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Oct 102014

The S&P500 fell to an intraday low of 1912.84 this morning, representing a 3% drawdown since the end of September. This is right around the average drawdown experienced during any random month and below the 5% average drawdown in October after a down September. Continue reading »

Leading TICK

 Posted by at 8:00 pm
Oct 062014

One of my ongoing research projects attempts to improve upon the standard NYSE TICK indicator. TICK tracks the net difference between the number of NYSE issues ticking higher and ticking lower at a given moment, and it’s one of the most widely used indicators among short-term traders. But a session like Monday reveals its shortcomings. The charts below show the intraday S&P500 chart (top) and the NYSE TICK indicator (bottom) in blue overlaid with our new Leading TICK indicator in red. Continue reading »

Looking Ahead to Q4

 Posted by at 3:56 pm
Sep 292014

I’ve written previously about the bullish implications of an up September, but with one session left in the month, the S&P is still down a little over 1%. Barring a big rally on Tuesday, we’re looking at our first down September in a few years. Continue reading »