I usually discuss up & down volume as a percentage of total volume, but another way of looking at the data is to take a ratio of up volume divided by down volume. On Wednesday, this ratio was over 20:1 on the NYSE. When the S&P manages to continue moving higher immediately after a 20:1 up:down volume day, meaning it…
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NYSE TICK closed below zero for the fifth consecutive session Monday. Historically, this pattern has led to volatile conditions over the next two weeks with a downside bias. Of the 11 occurrences since 2000, nearly half (5) led to an absolute move of 8% in ten days. That would represent a quick 90-point move in the SPX heading into December OpEx week…

NYSE TICK Closes <0 Five Consecutive Sessions
11/28/11… SPX ??? two weeks later
07/29/11… SPX -8.8% two weeks later
07/14/11… SPX -0.6% two weeks later
06/09/11… SPX -0.4% two weeks later
04/12/11… SPX +3.2% two weeks later
05/20/10… SPX -0.6% two weeks later
02/23/09… SPX -9.0% two weeks later
10/27/08… SPX +8.3% two weeks later
10/08/08… SPX -9.0% two weeks later
09/26/08… SPX -25.9% two weeks later
09/27/00… SPX -4.3% two weeks later
03/29/00… SPX -2.7% two weeks later

Turning to the big picture...
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Volume associated with advancing issues currently accounting for 98% of total volume on the NYSE. There have been thirteen occurrences since 1990 (all post-2005) of a 90%+ up volume session immediately following a 20-day (closing) low for the SPX. Ten out of thirteen led to…
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Market has entered extreme oversold territory. NYSE is working on a 3rd 90% down volume day in just the last five sessions, a pattern never seen prior to ’08 but a few times since, all of which led to significant gains over the next week (see tweet).

The SPX 2-day RSI is set to close under 2.0 (on a close below 1187.50) and will close under 1.0 (on a close below 1176.50). Buying the S&P when…
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By request I’ve updated the table from last Friday’s column highlighting the S&P’s performance from November OpEx through…
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