Second Gap Down Suggests Limited Downside Potential Intraday
By
Rennie on Tuesday, November 1st, 2011 at 1:08 pm
S&P futures currently trading right around today’s open. History suggests we’ll see a close in this area or better. Since 1990, there have been 28 instances in which S&P futures opened below the previous day’s low (threatening a downside gap) immediately following a session with an unfilled downside gap (high < previous day’s low)…
S&P Futures Open < Previous Day’s Low Following Unfilled Downside Gap
11/01/11… S&P futures close ??? from open
09/12/11… S&P futures close +2.0% from open
09/06/11… S&P futures close +2.1% from open
08/19/11… S&P futures close +0.0% from open
07/11/11… S&P futures close -0.3% from open
03/11/11… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
08/25/10… S&P futures close +1.0% from open
08/12/10… S&P futures close +0.8% from open
05/21/10… S&P futures close +3.1% from open
05/05/10… S&P futures close +0.3% from open
07/06/09… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
04/21/09… S&P futures close +2.9% from open
01/08/09… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
01/16/08… S&P futures close -0.3% from open
07/11/07… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
09/07/06… S&P futures close -0.1% from open
10/23/03… S&P futures close +0.5% from open
09/24/02… S&P futures close -0.1% from open
09/13/02… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
08/29/02… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
07/22/02… S&P futures close -2.2% from open (*)
06/15/01… S&P futures close +0.7% from open
03/12/01… S&P futures close -3.3% from open (*)
12/21/00… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
05/17/99… S&P futures close +0.5% from open
10/10/95… S&P futures close +0.8% from open
09/17/90… S&P futures close +1.1% from open
08/17/90… S&P futures close -0.6% from open
02/21/90… S&P futures close +1.1% from open
This second gap down doesn’t usually see much intraday follow-through. 15 of the last 19 occurrences led to a close above the open, and the largest open-to-close loss was 0.3%. Over 28 occurrences since 1990, 21 (75%) led to a close above the open, a decent edge over the 53% random chance.
Second Gap Down Suggests Limited Downside Potential Intraday
By Rennie on Tuesday, November 1st, 2011 at 1:08 pmS&P futures currently trading right around today’s open. History suggests we’ll see a close in this area or better. Since 1990, there have been 28 instances in which S&P futures opened below the previous day’s low (threatening a downside gap) immediately following a session with an unfilled downside gap (high < previous day’s low)…
S&P Futures Open < Previous Day’s Low Following Unfilled Downside Gap
11/01/11… S&P futures close ??? from open
09/12/11… S&P futures close +2.0% from open
09/06/11… S&P futures close +2.1% from open
08/19/11… S&P futures close +0.0% from open
07/11/11… S&P futures close -0.3% from open
03/11/11… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
08/25/10… S&P futures close +1.0% from open
08/12/10… S&P futures close +0.8% from open
05/21/10… S&P futures close +3.1% from open
05/05/10… S&P futures close +0.3% from open
07/06/09… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
04/21/09… S&P futures close +2.9% from open
01/08/09… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
01/16/08… S&P futures close -0.3% from open
07/11/07… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
09/07/06… S&P futures close -0.1% from open
10/23/03… S&P futures close +0.5% from open
09/24/02… S&P futures close -0.1% from open
09/13/02… S&P futures close +1.2% from open
08/29/02… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
07/22/02… S&P futures close -2.2% from open (*)
06/15/01… S&P futures close +0.7% from open
03/12/01… S&P futures close -3.3% from open (*)
12/21/00… S&P futures close +0.9% from open
05/17/99… S&P futures close +0.5% from open
10/10/95… S&P futures close +0.8% from open
09/17/90… S&P futures close +1.1% from open
08/17/90… S&P futures close -0.6% from open
02/21/90… S&P futures close +1.1% from open
This second gap down doesn’t usually see much intraday follow-through. 15 of the last 19 occurrences led to a close above the open, and the largest open-to-close loss was 0.3%. Over 28 occurrences since 1990, 21 (75%) led to a close above the open, a decent edge over the 53% random chance.