S&P Set to Post Double-Digit Monthly Gain

NYSE Cumulative TICK closed over +80,000 for the second time this week Thursday. Clusters of unusually high Cumulative TICK readings are usually short-term bullish. Below is every instance since mid-’07 in which Cumulative TICK closed over +75,000 on two separate occasions within a five-day time span…

10/27/11… S&P500 ???
08/26/11… S&P500 +3.1% two sessions later
07/01/11… S&P500 +1.0% three sessions later
10/08/10… S&P500 +0.4% two sessions later
07/22/10… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
07/09/10… S&P500 +1.6% two sessions later
04/22/10… S&P500 +0.3% two sessions later
03/23/10… S&P500 -0.6% three sessions later
03/05/10… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
03/02/10… S&P500 +0.4% two sessions later
09/09/09… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
08/20/09… S&P500 +1.8% two sessions later
08/03/09… S&P500 +0.0% two sessions later
07/14/09… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later
05/04/09… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
04/16/09… S&P500 -1.8% three sessions later
04/01/09… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later
03/23/09… S&P500 +1.2% three sessions later
03/18/09… S&P500 +3.6% three sessions later
03/12/09… S&P500 +0.4% two sessions later
01/02/09… S&P500 +0.3% two sessions later
11/26/08… S&P500 -4.4% three sessions later
10/17/08… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
07/17/08… S&P500 +1.3% three sessions later
03/20/08… S&P500 +1.8% two sessions later
11/28/07… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
08/21/07… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later

23 out of 26 occurrences (88%) led to a higher S&P close (above the setup day’s close) 2-3 sessions later vs. 66% random odds, suggesting the S&P will close above 1284 in the Monday-Tuesday time frame.

That would also leave the S&P500 with a double-digit percentage gain on a monthly basis, an encouraging sign for the first week of November. Following up on a study from Wayne Whaley, the S&P was higher one week after a 7.5%+ monthly gain in 24 out of 29 cases, or 83% of the time vs. 56% random odds…

S&P Closes Out Month w/ 7.5%+ Gain
09/30/10… S&P +1.5% five sessions later
04/30/09… S&P +4.0% five sessions later
03/31/09… S&P +2.2% five sessions later
04/30/03… S&P +1.4% five sessions later
10/31/02… S&P +1.9% five sessions later
11/30/01… S&P +1.7% five sessions later
04/30/01… S&P +1.1% five sessions later
03/31/00… S&P +1.2% five sessions later
10/30/98… S&P +3.9% five sessions later
07/31/97… S&P -0.3% five sessions later
12/31/91… S&P +0.2% five sessions later
05/31/90… S&P +0.5% five sessions later
07/31/89… S&P +1.0% five sessions later
01/30/87… S&P +2.2% five sessions later
08/31/84… S&P -1.5% five sessions later
10/29/82… S&P +6.3% five sessions later
08/31/82… S&P +2.3% five sessions later
11/28/80… S&P -4.6% five sessions later
04/28/78… S&P -0.3% five sessions later
01/30/76… S&P -1.4% five sessions later
01/31/75… S&P +2.1% five sessions later
10/31/74… S&P +1.8% five sessions later
12/31/71… S&P +1.4% five sessions later
04/30/68… S&P +1.5% five sessions later
01/31/67… S&P +0.4% five sessions later
11/30/62… S&P +1.3% five sessions later
06/30/55… S&P +3.9% five sessions later
11/30/54… S&P +2.0% five sessions later
09/30/54… S&P +1.2% five sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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