2% Up Day After Three Days of Higher Highs, Higher Lows

A 2%+ up day after three days of higher lows is a pretty strong price pattern. Over 30 occurrences since 1965, 80% led to a higher S&P two weeks later (vs 56% random odds). Only two cases led to an S&P down over 2% two weeks later, while thirteen led to a 2% gain. Average upside was +3%, which equates with SPX 1230, about as high as the S&P has managed in its recent attempts to cross 1200.

S&P500 2% Up Day After Three Days of Higher Lows
10/10/11… S&P500 ??? two weeks later
08/15/11… S&P500 +0.5% two weeks later
06/15/10… S&P500 -6.6% two weeks later (*)
11/09/09… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
07/23/09… S&P500 +2.1% two weeks later
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
03/12/09… S&P500 +10.9% two weeks later
12/05/08… S&P500 +1.4% two weeks later
11/04/08… S&P500 -14.6% two weeks later (*)
10/17/02… S&P500 +0.8% two weeks later
03/01/02… S&P500 +3.0% two weeks later
04/10/01… S&P500 +5.2% two weeks later
12/23/98… S&P500 +3.8% two weeks later
11/23/98… S&P500 -0.6% two weeks later
10/15/98… S&P500 +3.7% two weeks later
02/02/98… S&P500 +2.2% two weeks later
05/05/97… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
12/30/91… S&P500 +1.3% two weeks later
02/11/91… S&P500 -1.6% two weeks later
05/11/90… S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later
01/04/88… S&P500 -1.6% two weeks later
12/18/87… S&P500 +3.8% two weeks later
04/21/87… S&P500 +0.8% two weeks later
03/11/86… S&P500 +1.3% two weeks later
10/11/82… S&P500 -0.9% two weeks later
10/07/82… S&P500 +8.0% two weeks later
10/06/82… S&P500 +10.5% two weeks later
08/02/78… S&P500 +1.7% two weeks later
08/16/71… S&P500 +0.8% two weeks later
08/24/70… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
04/01/68… S&P500 +4.7% two weeks later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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