When NYSE Common Stock 52-week Highs Fail To Expand on Rally Day
By
Rennie on Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011 at 2:39 pm
A close above SPX 1140.65 today would trigger the same 2-4 day sell setup recently discussed in this August 12th commentary. I also see new 52-week highs down across the board from Monday despite the S&P trading 0.6% above Monday’s high, not just on the NYSE & NASDAQ but also among NYSE common stocks. On Monday we saw 7 common stocks hit a new 52-week high. Today that number is just 3 with roughly two hours to go. Below I’ve listed every occurrence since 2005 when the SPX traded 0.5% above the previous day’s high while the number of NYSE common stocks hitting new highs declined. Note the tendency for the market to trade lower over the following week, with 20 out of 27 occurrences (74%) leading to a lower SPX five sessions later. The random chance for a lower S&P one week later in the same time frame is only 45%, so this represents a significant edge over random.
SPX 0.5% Above Previous Day’s High, Common Stock 52wk Highs Decline
06/09/11… SPX -1.7% one week later
04/27/11… SPX -0.6% one week later
06/15/10… SPX -1.8% one week later
09/17/09… SPX -1.4% one week later
07/16/09… SPX +3.8% one week later
06/29/09… SPX -5.0% one week later
05/19/09… SPX -1.7% one week later
05/06/09… SPX -3.9% one week later
04/16/09… SPX -1.6% one week later
04/13/09… SPX -3.1% one week later
03/12/09… SPX +4.4% one week later
03/04/09… SPX +1.2% one week later
02/03/09… SPX -1.4% one week later
01/02/09… SPX -4.5% one week later
11/04/08… SPX -10.6% one week later
10/31/08… SPX -3.9% one week later
10/28/08… SPX +6.9% one week later
10/17/08… SPX -6.8% one week later
08/06/08… SPX -0.3% one week later
06/25/08… SPX -4.6% one week later
05/12/08… SPX +1.6% one week later
02/13/08… SPX -1.8% one week later
01/24/08… SPX +2.0% one week later
12/24/07… SPX -3.3% one week later
12/10/07… SPX -4.6% one week later
04/20/06… SPX -0.1% one week later
11/21/05… SPX +0.2% one week later
When NYSE Common Stock 52-week Highs Fail To Expand on Rally Day
By Rennie on Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011 at 2:39 pmA close above SPX 1140.65 today would trigger the same 2-4 day sell setup recently discussed in this August 12th commentary. I also see new 52-week highs down across the board from Monday despite the S&P trading 0.6% above Monday’s high, not just on the NYSE & NASDAQ but also among NYSE common stocks. On Monday we saw 7 common stocks hit a new 52-week high. Today that number is just 3 with roughly two hours to go. Below I’ve listed every occurrence since 2005 when the SPX traded 0.5% above the previous day’s high while the number of NYSE common stocks hitting new highs declined. Note the tendency for the market to trade lower over the following week, with 20 out of 27 occurrences (74%) leading to a lower SPX five sessions later. The random chance for a lower S&P one week later in the same time frame is only 45%, so this represents a significant edge over random.
SPX 0.5% Above Previous Day’s High, Common Stock 52wk Highs Decline
06/09/11… SPX -1.7% one week later
04/27/11… SPX -0.6% one week later
06/15/10… SPX -1.8% one week later
09/17/09… SPX -1.4% one week later
07/16/09… SPX +3.8% one week later
06/29/09… SPX -5.0% one week later
05/19/09… SPX -1.7% one week later
05/06/09… SPX -3.9% one week later
04/16/09… SPX -1.6% one week later
04/13/09… SPX -3.1% one week later
03/12/09… SPX +4.4% one week later
03/04/09… SPX +1.2% one week later
02/03/09… SPX -1.4% one week later
01/02/09… SPX -4.5% one week later
11/04/08… SPX -10.6% one week later
10/31/08… SPX -3.9% one week later
10/28/08… SPX +6.9% one week later
10/17/08… SPX -6.8% one week later
08/06/08… SPX -0.3% one week later
06/25/08… SPX -4.6% one week later
05/12/08… SPX +1.6% one week later
02/13/08… SPX -1.8% one week later
01/24/08… SPX +2.0% one week later
12/24/07… SPX -3.3% one week later
12/10/07… SPX -4.6% one week later
04/20/06… SPX -0.1% one week later
11/21/05… SPX +0.2% one week later