Last Hour Indicator Posts Largest One-Day Advance in Over Two Years
By
Rennie on Thursday, August 11th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
Last Hour gained 348 on Tuesday, its largest one-day gain since February ’09. It gained another 133 on Wednesday, leaving it only a couple hundred away from taking out the highs of the year. Should we see new highs from this indicator, it would suggest that the retracement of the downmove over the last two years has begun. That’s positive in the sense that accumulation is finally starting to take place, but negative in the sense that this final accumulation phase usually occurs as the market trades significantly lower. Ultimately the Last Hour needs to gain a little over 2,000 points to retrace the entire move down from the last two years. So the last couple of sessions was a good start but we’ll need to see a lot of similar days before the Last Hour will retrace the 2009-2010 distribution phase and turn bullish.
The S&P500 has so far traded down as much as 13.4% month-to-date. Here’s a look at every instance since 1962 in which the S&P500 fell 10%+ during a single month along with the S&P’s percentage change at month-end…
S&P500 Falls Over 10% During a Single Month
08/09/11… S&P -13.4% intramonth, closes ???
05/12/10… S&P -12.3% intramonth, closes -8.2%
02/27/09… S&P -11.1% intramonth, closes -11.0%
01/30/09… S&P -11.0% intramonth, closes -8.6%
11/28/08… S&P -23.5% intramonth, closes -7.5%
10/31/08… S&P -28.0% intramonth, closes -16.9%
09/30/08… S&P -13.8% intramonth, closes -9.1%
01/31/08… S&P -13.5% intramonth, closes -6.1%
09/30/02… S&P -12.6% intramonth, closes -11.0%
07/31/02… S&P -21.6% intramonth, closes -7.9%
06/28/02… S&P -10.7% intramonth, closes -7.2%
09/28/01… S&P -16.7% intramonth, closes -8.2%
03/30/01… S&P -12.8% intramonth, closes -6.4%
02/28/01… S&P -11.0% intramonth, closes -9.2%
04/28/00… S&P -10.6% intramonth, closes -3.1% (*)
08/31/98… S&P -14.6% intramonth, closes -14.6%
08/31/90… S&P -14.0% intramonth, closes -9.4%
11/30/87… S&P -10.3% intramonth, closes -8.5%
10/30/87… S&P -32.7% intramonth, closes -21.8%
09/30/81… S&P -10.3% intramonth, closes -5.4%
12/31/80… S&P -10.8% intramonth, closes -3.4% (*)
03/31/80… S&P -17.1% intramonth, closes -10.2%
10/31/78… S&P -10.6% intramonth, closes -9.2%
09/30/74… S&P -13.3% intramonth, closes -11.9%
08/30/74… S&P -12.5% intramonth, closes -9.0%
11/30/73… S&P -12.4% intramonth, closes -11.4%
05/29/70… S&P -15.8% intramonth, closes -6.1%
04/30/70… S&P -11.5% intramonth, closes -9.1%
08/31/66… S&P -11.6% intramonth, closes -7.8%
06/29/62… S&P -13.9% intramonth, closes -8.2%
05/31/62… S&P -18.6% intramonth, closes -8.6%
Out of 30 occurrences over the last 50 years in which the S&P traded down 10%+ during a single month, the market finished the month down at least 5% in all but two cases. Measuring 5% down from July’s close comes in right around SPX 1225, indicating this area should prove to be resistance for the rest of August. That in turn suggests a monthly close back over 1200 is going to be a difficult task. Assuming an SPX under 1200 at the end of August, SPX will post a monthly close under its 20-month average, issuing a longer-term sell on the moving average strategy.
Last Hour Indicator Posts Largest One-Day Advance in Over Two Years
By Rennie on Thursday, August 11th, 2011 at 12:22 pmLast Hour gained 348 on Tuesday, its largest one-day gain since February ’09. It gained another 133 on Wednesday, leaving it only a couple hundred away from taking out the highs of the year. Should we see new highs from this indicator, it would suggest that the retracement of the downmove over the last two years has begun. That’s positive in the sense that accumulation is finally starting to take place, but negative in the sense that this final accumulation phase usually occurs as the market trades significantly lower. Ultimately the Last Hour needs to gain a little over 2,000 points to retrace the entire move down from the last two years. So the last couple of sessions was a good start but we’ll need to see a lot of similar days before the Last Hour will retrace the 2009-2010 distribution phase and turn bullish.
The S&P500 has so far traded down as much as 13.4% month-to-date. Here’s a look at every instance since 1962 in which the S&P500 fell 10%+ during a single month along with the S&P’s percentage change at month-end…
S&P500 Falls Over 10% During a Single Month
08/09/11… S&P -13.4% intramonth, closes ???
05/12/10… S&P -12.3% intramonth, closes -8.2%
02/27/09… S&P -11.1% intramonth, closes -11.0%
01/30/09… S&P -11.0% intramonth, closes -8.6%
11/28/08… S&P -23.5% intramonth, closes -7.5%
10/31/08… S&P -28.0% intramonth, closes -16.9%
09/30/08… S&P -13.8% intramonth, closes -9.1%
01/31/08… S&P -13.5% intramonth, closes -6.1%
09/30/02… S&P -12.6% intramonth, closes -11.0%
07/31/02… S&P -21.6% intramonth, closes -7.9%
06/28/02… S&P -10.7% intramonth, closes -7.2%
09/28/01… S&P -16.7% intramonth, closes -8.2%
03/30/01… S&P -12.8% intramonth, closes -6.4%
02/28/01… S&P -11.0% intramonth, closes -9.2%
04/28/00… S&P -10.6% intramonth, closes -3.1% (*)
08/31/98… S&P -14.6% intramonth, closes -14.6%
08/31/90… S&P -14.0% intramonth, closes -9.4%
11/30/87… S&P -10.3% intramonth, closes -8.5%
10/30/87… S&P -32.7% intramonth, closes -21.8%
09/30/81… S&P -10.3% intramonth, closes -5.4%
12/31/80… S&P -10.8% intramonth, closes -3.4% (*)
03/31/80… S&P -17.1% intramonth, closes -10.2%
10/31/78… S&P -10.6% intramonth, closes -9.2%
09/30/74… S&P -13.3% intramonth, closes -11.9%
08/30/74… S&P -12.5% intramonth, closes -9.0%
11/30/73… S&P -12.4% intramonth, closes -11.4%
05/29/70… S&P -15.8% intramonth, closes -6.1%
04/30/70… S&P -11.5% intramonth, closes -9.1%
08/31/66… S&P -11.6% intramonth, closes -7.8%
06/29/62… S&P -13.9% intramonth, closes -8.2%
05/31/62… S&P -18.6% intramonth, closes -8.6%
Out of 30 occurrences over the last 50 years in which the S&P traded down 10%+ during a single month, the market finished the month down at least 5% in all but two cases. Measuring 5% down from July’s close comes in right around SPX 1225, indicating this area should prove to be resistance for the rest of August. That in turn suggests a monthly close back over 1200 is going to be a difficult task. Assuming an SPX under 1200 at the end of August, SPX will post a monthly close under its 20-month average, issuing a longer-term sell on the moving average strategy.