Implications of Today’s Intraday SPX Reversal

S&P500 back from a 20-point intraday drop, currently just above unchanged levels with a little under two hours to go. That’s not a particularly bullish pattern for the short-term. Historically, when the S&P trades down 1.5% intraday and manages to close higher (by less than 1%), the comeback is usually short-lived. In 26 out of the last 30 occurrences since 2000, or 87% of the time, the S&P reversed course and posted a lower close within the next two sessions, well above the 61% random chance. This goes into effect at today’s close if the S&P finishes up by less than 1%…

S&P Down 1.5%+ Intraday, Closes Up Less Than 1%
05/25/10… Lower SPX close one session later
05/17/10… Lower SPX close one session later
02/05/10… Lower SPX close one session later
03/25/09… Lower SPX close three sessions later
03/06/09… Lower SPX close one session later
02/12/09… Lower SPX close one session later
01/23/09… No lower SPX close next three sessions
01/16/09… Lower SPX close one session later
01/15/09… Lower SPX close two sessions later
12/12/08… Lower SPX close one session later
11/25/08… Lower SPX close three sessions later
11/18/08… Lower SPX close one session later
09/26/08… Lower SPX close one session later
09/05/08… Lower SPX close two sessions later
07/01/08… Lower SPX close one session later
03/13/08… Lower SPX close one session later
08/16/07… No lower SPX close next three sessions
08/10/07… Lower SPX close one session later
06/08/06… Lower SPX close one session later
05/12/04… Lower SPX close one session later
03/20/03… Lower SPX close two sessions later
02/25/03… Lower SPX close one session later
10/23/02… Lower SPX close one session later
08/09/02… Lower SPX close one session later
07/30/02… Lower SPX close two sessions later
07/11/02… Lower SPX close one session later
06/24/02… Lower SPX close one session later
10/05/01… Lower SPX close one session later
03/01/01… Lower SPX close one session later
04/27/00… Lower SPX close one session later

Also noteworthy to see over 2,500 new 20-day lows across all exchanges. That’s only the second time this year we’ve seen over 2,000 20-day lows. Historically, this high a number has usually meant further downside lies in store short-term…

New 20-day Lows Cross 2,000
08/03/11… ???
03/15/11… Lower S&P close one session later
08/24/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/01/10… Lower S&P close one session later
06/08/10… Lower S&P close one session later
05/25/10… Lower S&P close one session later
05/20/10… Lower S&P close four sessions later
05/06/10… Lower S&P close one session later
02/05/10… Lower S&P close one session later
03/06/09… Lower S&P close one session later
03/02/09… Lower S&P close one session later
02/20/09… Lower S&P close one session later
11/20/08… No lower close next four sessions
10/06/08… Lower S&P close one session later
09/29/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/16/08… Lower S&P close one session later
07/01/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/22/08… No lower close next four sessions
01/09/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
08/06/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/26/07… Lower S&P close one session later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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