90% Up Volume after a 20-day Low for SPX
By
Rennie on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
NYSE up volume currently running at 92% of total volume (see intraday snapshot). Should we maintain 90%+ up volume into the close, history would suggest flat-to-lower prices on Wednesday. In the table below is every instance since 1990 in which a 90%+ up volume session occurred immediately following a 20-day low for the SPX. There have only been a dozen occurrences, and the market was twice as likely to close lower the next day, with upside potential capped at the 0.5% level…
90%+ Up Volume Session After 20-day Low for S&P500
08/27/10… S&P500 -1.5% next day
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.2% next day
05/10/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
07/13/09… S&P500 +0.5% next day
03/10/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
02/24/09… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/28/08… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/13/08… S&P500 -0.5% next day
11/23/07… S&P500 -2.3% next day
11/13/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
03/06/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
04/18/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
Also interesting to note that Tuesday is setting up to be only the 14th time that a 3:1+ positive breadth session coincided with a lower high for S&P futures. In each of the last 13 cases the S&P proceeded to post a subsequently lower close (below the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions…
3:1 Positive Breadth and Lower Highs for S&P Futures
03/08/11… Lower S&P close one session later
05/21/10… Lower S&P close one session later
05/03/10… Lower S&P close one session later
02/01/10… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/21/09… Lower S&P close one session later
02/24/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/21/09… Lower S&P close one session later
12/02/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/30/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/30/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/31/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/28/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
05/11/07… Lower S&P close one session later
90% Up Volume after a 20-day Low for SPX
By Rennie on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011 at 1:46 pmNYSE up volume currently running at 92% of total volume (see intraday snapshot). Should we maintain 90%+ up volume into the close, history would suggest flat-to-lower prices on Wednesday. In the table below is every instance since 1990 in which a 90%+ up volume session occurred immediately following a 20-day low for the SPX. There have only been a dozen occurrences, and the market was twice as likely to close lower the next day, with upside potential capped at the 0.5% level…
90%+ Up Volume Session After 20-day Low for S&P500
08/27/10… S&P500 -1.5% next day
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.2% next day
05/10/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
07/13/09… S&P500 +0.5% next day
03/10/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
02/24/09… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/28/08… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/13/08… S&P500 -0.5% next day
11/23/07… S&P500 -2.3% next day
11/13/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
03/06/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
04/18/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
Also interesting to note that Tuesday is setting up to be only the 14th time that a 3:1+ positive breadth session coincided with a lower high for S&P futures. In each of the last 13 cases the S&P proceeded to post a subsequently lower close (below the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions…
3:1 Positive Breadth and Lower Highs for S&P Futures
03/08/11… Lower S&P close one session later
05/21/10… Lower S&P close one session later
05/03/10… Lower S&P close one session later
02/01/10… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/21/09… Lower S&P close one session later
02/24/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/21/09… Lower S&P close one session later
12/02/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/30/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/30/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/31/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/28/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
05/11/07… Lower S&P close one session later