S&P Oscillator Hits a New High for the Year

Our version of the S&P Oscillator utilizing SPX components surged to its highest level of the year Friday, closing at 9.52. Readings this high are an intermediate-term bullish indication and suggest the S&P will be trading higher one month later. There have only been 18 separate instances of a 9+ SPX Oscillator since 1990, 15 of which led to a higher S&P one month later…

SPX Oscillator >9
07/01/11… S&P500 ??? one month later
03/30/11… S&P500 +2.4% one month later
09/14/10… S&P500 +4.3% one month later
03/11/10… S&P500 +3.8% one month later
09/16/09… S&P500 +2.2% one month later
07/21/09… S&P500 +3.7% one month later
03/23/09… S&P500 +3.3% one month later
11/05/04… S&P500 +2.1% one month later
10/14/03… S&P500 -0.3% one month later
06/04/03… S&P500 +0.8% one month later
03/25/03… S&P500 +5.1% one month later
10/21/02… S&P500 +0.1% one month later
08/19/02… S&P500 -8.1% \one month later (*)
11/06/98… S&P500 +4.1% one month later
10/22/98… S&P500 +6.9% one month later
05/05/97… S&P500 +1.8% one month later
12/31/91… S&P500 -1.6% one month later (*)
02/05/91… S&P500 +7.1% one month later
05/11/90… S&P500 +2.7% one month later

Those are all instances in which the Oscillator closed over 9.0 for the first time in at least ten sessions (to avoid repeat signals).

Also a bullish sign to see the Cumulative Breadth line based on SPX components close at a new 52-week high Friday. This indicates the S&P500 itself is likely to follow suit with its own 52-week high. When the cumulative breadth line hits a new high for the first time in a week or more and the SPX does not, there’s a notable tendency for the SPX to play catch up. The last instance that occurred in May is still open and has taken longer than usual to fulfill, but the fact it just occurred again is a promising sign…

SPX Cumulative Breadth Hits New 52wk High First Time in a Week, SPX Fails to Close at New 52wk High
07/05/11… ???
05/10/11… ??? (open – 37 days & counting)
03/30/11… SPX new 52-week high 18 sessions later
02/10/11… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
04/20/10… SPX new 52-week high 3 sessions later
03/02/10… SPX new 52-week high 7 sessions later
01/13/10… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
12/21/09… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
04/05/07… SPX new 52-week high 6 sessions later
03/21/07… SPX new 52-week high 17 sessions later
01/31/07… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
12/27/06… SPX new 52-week high 10 sessions later
11/13/06… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
02/22/06… SPX new 52-week high 14 sessions later
12/29/04… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
12/21/04… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
11/24/04… SPX new 52-week high 4 sessions later
11/03/04… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
10/01/04… SPX new 52-week high 24 sessions later
01/14/04… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
12/26/03… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
10/06/03… SPX new 52-week high 5 sessions later
08/29/03… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
03/02/98… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later
07/11/97… SPX new 52-week high 2 sessions later
05/30/97… SPX new 52-week high 5 sessions later
01/02/96… SPX new 52-week high 19 sessions later
06/06/95… SPX new 52-week high 5 sessions later
03/09/93… SPX new 52-week high 1 session later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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