S&P Futures Post a Third Strong Opening
By
Rennie on Thursday, July 21st, 2011 at 12:10 pm
I’ve previously discussed the short-term bullish implications of two consecutive opens above the previous day’s high, most recently in this May 31st column. Today we’ve seen a rare pattern develop as S&P futures have posted a third consecutive open above the previous day’s high. That’s only occurred 13 separate times since inception of S&P futures. Each instance is shown in the table below along with the performance of S&P futures over the next one week, one month and one quarter…
S&P Futures Open >Prev Day High Three Consecutive Sessions
07/21/11… ???
03/01/11… +1.5%, +1.6%, +1.6%
12/13/10… +0.4%, +2.8%, +4.7%
12/28/09… +0.8%, -2.5%, +3.9%
09/09/09… +3.4%, +2.5%, +6.8%
04/17/07… +0.6%, +2.0%, +4.2%
08/16/06… -0.1%, +1.5%, +5.6%
07/16/99… -4.5%, -6.6%, -6.7% (*)
12/30/96… +0.1%, +1.6%, +4.2%
10/13/95… +0.3%, +1.1%, +1.1%
11/26/93… +0.5%, +1.6%, +1.7%
05/17/88… -0.3%, +7.9%, +2.5%
01/29/87… +2.6%, +3.1%, +1.4%
10/11/82… +2.1%, +4.7%, +4.7%
Of immediate interest is the fact that the S&P was down more than 0.5% one week later only once, suggesting limited downside potential heading into next Thursday. Also noteworthy was the market’s consistent performance looking out one quarter, with 12 out of 13 occurrences leading to a higher S&P. Average gain was 3.5%, which would put the S&P in the mid-1380′s later this year based on current levels. That’s consistent with SPX cumulative breadth, which continues to call for the SPX to hit a new 52-week high (see this July 5th column).
S&P Futures Post a Third Strong Opening
By Rennie on Thursday, July 21st, 2011 at 12:10 pmI’ve previously discussed the short-term bullish implications of two consecutive opens above the previous day’s high, most recently in this May 31st column. Today we’ve seen a rare pattern develop as S&P futures have posted a third consecutive open above the previous day’s high. That’s only occurred 13 separate times since inception of S&P futures. Each instance is shown in the table below along with the performance of S&P futures over the next one week, one month and one quarter…
S&P Futures Open >Prev Day High Three Consecutive Sessions
07/21/11… ???
03/01/11… +1.5%, +1.6%, +1.6%
12/13/10… +0.4%, +2.8%, +4.7%
12/28/09… +0.8%, -2.5%, +3.9%
09/09/09… +3.4%, +2.5%, +6.8%
04/17/07… +0.6%, +2.0%, +4.2%
08/16/06… -0.1%, +1.5%, +5.6%
07/16/99… -4.5%, -6.6%, -6.7% (*)
12/30/96… +0.1%, +1.6%, +4.2%
10/13/95… +0.3%, +1.1%, +1.1%
11/26/93… +0.5%, +1.6%, +1.7%
05/17/88… -0.3%, +7.9%, +2.5%
01/29/87… +2.6%, +3.1%, +1.4%
10/11/82… +2.1%, +4.7%, +4.7%
Of immediate interest is the fact that the S&P was down more than 0.5% one week later only once, suggesting limited downside potential heading into next Thursday. Also noteworthy was the market’s consistent performance looking out one quarter, with 12 out of 13 occurrences leading to a higher S&P. Average gain was 3.5%, which would put the S&P in the mid-1380′s later this year based on current levels. That’s consistent with SPX cumulative breadth, which continues to call for the SPX to hit a new 52-week high (see this July 5th column).