Friday’s Jobs Report Unlikely to Trigger Downside Surprise
By
Rennie on Thursday, July 7th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
I’ve discussed previously the fact that when the S&P500 hits a 40-day high on the session prior to the employment report release, it’s usually a bullish sign for the day of the release. So far in today’s session the S&P is up nearly 1%, but today’s high lies just below the 40-day high. Still, SPX has hit its highest level in 39 sessions, so below I’ve listed every instance in which the S&P hit a 30-day high just prior to the jobs report. Just like the 40-day setup, this has an equally consistent tendency to lead to a flat-to-up session on the Friday jobs report. Over 37 occurrences since 1995, not a single instance coincided with a 1% down day for the S&P500, and only 2 out of 30 involved more than a 0.5% drop…
SPX Touches 30-day High Prior to Jobs Report
07/07/11… S&P500 ??? next session
01/06/11… S&P500 -0.2% next session
11/04/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
10/07/10… S&P500 +0.6% next session
01/07/10… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/03/09… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/06/09… S&P500 +1.3% next session
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
04/02/09… S&P500 +1.0% next session
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
05/31/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
05/03/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
12/07/06… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/05/06… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/03/06… S&P500 -0.1% next session
01/05/06… S&P500 +0.9% next session
03/03/05… S&P500 +1.0% next session
12/02/04… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/04/04… S&P500 +0.4% next session
09/02/04… S&P500 -0.4% next session
01/08/04… S&P500 -0.9% next session (*)
06/05/03… S&P500 -0.2% next session
03/07/02… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/31/00… S&P500 +0.2% next session
07/01/99… S&P500 +0.8% next session
11/04/98… S&P500 +1.3% next session
07/01/98… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/02/98… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/05/98… S&P500 +0.9% next session
12/04/97… S&P500 +1.1% next session
07/31/97… S&P500 -0.8% next session (*)
07/02/97… S&P500 +1.4% next session
02/01/96… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/95… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/01/95… S&P500 -0.2% next session
05/04/95… S&P500 -0.1% next session
02/02/95… S&P500 +1.2% next session
Friday’s Jobs Report Unlikely to Trigger Downside Surprise
By Rennie on Thursday, July 7th, 2011 at 12:20 pmI’ve discussed previously the fact that when the S&P500 hits a 40-day high on the session prior to the employment report release, it’s usually a bullish sign for the day of the release. So far in today’s session the S&P is up nearly 1%, but today’s high lies just below the 40-day high. Still, SPX has hit its highest level in 39 sessions, so below I’ve listed every instance in which the S&P hit a 30-day high just prior to the jobs report. Just like the 40-day setup, this has an equally consistent tendency to lead to a flat-to-up session on the Friday jobs report. Over 37 occurrences since 1995, not a single instance coincided with a 1% down day for the S&P500, and only 2 out of 30 involved more than a 0.5% drop…
SPX Touches 30-day High Prior to Jobs Report
07/07/11… S&P500 ??? next session
01/06/11… S&P500 -0.2% next session
11/04/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
10/07/10… S&P500 +0.6% next session
01/07/10… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/03/09… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/06/09… S&P500 +1.3% next session
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
04/02/09… S&P500 +1.0% next session
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
05/31/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
05/03/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
12/07/06… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/05/06… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/03/06… S&P500 -0.1% next session
01/05/06… S&P500 +0.9% next session
03/03/05… S&P500 +1.0% next session
12/02/04… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/04/04… S&P500 +0.4% next session
09/02/04… S&P500 -0.4% next session
01/08/04… S&P500 -0.9% next session (*)
06/05/03… S&P500 -0.2% next session
03/07/02… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/31/00… S&P500 +0.2% next session
07/01/99… S&P500 +0.8% next session
11/04/98… S&P500 +1.3% next session
07/01/98… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/02/98… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/05/98… S&P500 +0.9% next session
12/04/97… S&P500 +1.1% next session
07/31/97… S&P500 -0.8% next session (*)
07/02/97… S&P500 +1.4% next session
02/01/96… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/95… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/01/95… S&P500 -0.2% next session
05/04/95… S&P500 -0.1% next session
02/02/95… S&P500 +1.2% next session