Cumulative TICK Below -100,000 Second Consecutive Session

Interesting to note that Wednesday and Thursday both fell into that weird category that has appeared recently in which very negative NYSE TICK action coincides with a relatively flat market. This combination never occurred prior to 2008. If Cumulative TICK was -100,000, the market was down huge. Of the 35 occurrences since mid-2007 in which the S&P closed lower on a -100k Cumulative TICK day, the S&P’s average loss was 3.8%. It’s therefore unusual to see the S&P lose less than 1% or actually manage a gain with such negative TICKs. That’s what happened on both Wednesday and Thursday, the first time ever we’ve seen back-to-back occurrences. There have only been six total occurrences in the last decade, all of which led to a higher market one month later…

S&P Higher or Down <1%, Cumulative TICK <-100,000
07/14/11… S&P ??? one month later
07/13/11… S&P ??? one month later
04/13/11… S&P +2.6% one month later
12/13/10… S&P +2.7% one month later
11/09/10… S&P +1.2% one month later
09/13/10… S&P +3.9% one month later
03/06/09… S&P +23.3% one month later
07/14/08… S&P +6.3% one month later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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