SPX Posts Four Lower Lows and a 20-day Low

After posting a fourth lower low and a 20-day low, how long does it take before the SPX closes higher than today’s close? Usually not more than four sessions. Of the last 30 occurrences, 25 led to a higher SPX close (above the setup day’s close) within the next two sessions, and 29 out of 30 led to a higher SPX close within the next four sessions…

SPX Four Lower Lows & 20-day Low
06/06/11… ???
03/15/11… Higher SPX close 4 sessions later
01/29/10… Higher SPX close 1 session later
07/08/09… Higher SPX close 1 session later
03/03/09… Higher SPX close 1 session later
02/20/09… Higher SPX close 2 sessions later
01/14/09… Higher SPX close 1 session later
11/20/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
10/07/08… Higher SPX close 4 sessions later
09/18/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
09/04/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
07/15/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
06/20/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
03/04/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
01/18/08… Higher SPX close 2 sessions later
01/09/08… Higher SPX close 1 session later
11/20/07… Higher SPX close 2 sessions later
11/12/07… Higher SPX close 1 session later
07/27/07… Higher SPX close 1 session later
06/27/07… Higher SPX close 3 sessions later
06/08/07… Higher SPX close 1 session later
02/27/07… Higher SPX close 1 session later
07/14/06… Higher SPX close 2 sessions later
05/22/06… Higher SPX close 3 sessions later
05/15/06… No higher SPX close in next 4 sessions
04/11/06… Higher SPX close 1 session later
10/13/05… Higher SPX close 1 session later
10/06/05… Higher SPX close 1 session later
03/23/05… Higher SPX close 2 sessions later
01/07/05… Higher SPX close 1 session later
07/26/04… Higher SPX close 1 session later

Beyond the fact it’s short-term oversold, there’s little to like about recent action. Note that new 52-week lows hit a new high for the year Monday on both the SPX components and NYSE common stock charts, even though the S&P remains nearly 3% above its March low. This hints at greater technical damage beneath the surface than during previous pullbacks this year. Below I’ve summarized a few compelling long-term bullish signals still in play, most of which point to an SPX over 1325 around the end of Q3, but in the mean time it looks like we could challenge the March lows.

SPX ADT10 closed over 65 on March 30th, which points to an S&P above 1328 in late September. http://markettells.com/2011/04/sign-of-persistence-from-the-russell-2-day-rsi/

S&P YTD positive at the end of February points to an S&P above 1327 end of December. http://markettells.com/2011/03/spx-closes-below-its-50-day-sma-february-effect-reminder/

Seven higher lows on the monthly S&P chart indicates  S&P will be above 1327 end of September. http://markettells.com/2011/03/persistent-moves-on-the-monthly-and-quarterly-sp-charts/

Three consecutive up quarters for the SPX indicates S&P will post a quarterly close above 1325 by end of 2011. http://markettells.com/2011/03/persistent-moves-on-the-monthly-and-quarterly-sp-charts/

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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