Interactive Charts Now With Downloadable Data Files

You may have noticed that all interactive chart pages now feature a ‘download’ link in the upper right, allowing you to grab a CSV file with the data featured in the chart. I’ve also finished adding a brief description to each chart page. A couple of other changes… The WSJ has stopped reporting NYSE ‘floor’ volume in their data pages, switching to NYSE consolidated volume. I’ve adjusted our NYSE volume page and Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio pages to only reflect consolidated volume rather than providing separate charts for floor and consolidated.

Turning to the market, a couple of interesting developments. One, NYSE TICK ran up to a very high +1517 late Thursday. That’s the highest intraday TICK reading in over nine months, a bullish intermediate-term development. In the table below I’ve listed each of the last 30 instances in which the TICK hit its highest level of the past two months, along with the S&P’s performance both one and two weeks later. While it may not be immediately apparent, close study reveals that only one instance (2/24/09) failed to lead to a higher S&P one or two weeks later. That 97% rate is well above the 71% random chance for a higher S&P close 5 or 10 trading days later…

NYSE TICK Hits Highest Level in Forty Trading Days
06/23/11… S&P500 ???
01/25/11… S&P500 +1.3% one week later, +2.6% two weeks later
07/20/10… S&P500 +2.8% one week later, +3.4% two weeks later
07/15/10… S&P500 -0.3% one week later, +0.5% two weeks later
05/25/10… S&P500 +2.3% one week later, -1.7% two weeks later
03/23/10… S&P500 -0.1% one week later, +0.7% two weeks later
02/11/10… S&P500 +2.9% one week later, +2.4% two weeks later
02/09/10… S&P500 +2.7% one week later, +3.2% two weeks later
11/27/09… S&P500 +1.3% one week later, +1.4% two weeks later
09/04/09… S&P500 +3.2% one week later, +4.8% two weeks later
08/27/09… S&P500 -2.7% one week later, +1.1% two weeks later
08/21/09… S&P500 +0.3% one week later, -1.0% two weeks later
05/18/09… S&P500 +0.1% one week later, +3.9% two weeks later
02/24/09… S&P500 -9.9% one week later, -6.9% two weeks later (*)
10/17/08… S&P500 -6.8% one week later, +3.0% two weeks later
09/18/08… S&P500 +0.2% one week later, -7.6% two weeks later
09/05/08… S&P500 +0.8% one week later, +1.0% two weeks later
07/08/08… S&P500 -4.6% one week later, +0.3% two weeks later
03/26/08… S&P500 +2.0% one week later, +1.0% two weeks later
01/23/08… S&P500 +1.3% one week later, -0.9% two weeks later
06/27/07… S&P500 +1.3% one week later, +2.8% two weeks later
06/12/07… S&P500 +2.7% one week later, -0.0% two weeks later
06/08/07… S&P500 +1.7% one week later, -0.3% two weeks later
03/21/07… S&P500 -1.2% one week later, +0.3% two weeks later
03/12/07… S&P500 -0.3% one week later, +2.2% two weeks later
12/29/06… S&P500 -0.4% one week later, +0.9% two weeks later
12/26/06… S&P500 +0.1% one week later, +0.5% two weeks later
11/30/06… S&P500 +0.5% one week later, +1.8% two weeks later
08/29/06… S&P500 -0.3% one week later, +1.1% two weeks later
05/19/06… S&P500 +1.0% one week later, -0.1% two weeks later
01/03/06… S&P500 +1.7% one week later, +0.7% two weeks later

Also interesting to note that even with Thursday’s rebound, S&P futures remain 0.8% below Tuesday’s close. That’s unusual considering that on Tuesday, we saw a normally bullish 2-3 day signal triggered. When S&P futures post three consecutive higher highs and the combined number of new 52-week highs (NYSE + NASDAQ) expand each day while the combined number of new 52-week lows contracts each day, it’s usually a sign of strength for the short-term. Looking back over the last 30 separate occurrences, only two cases failed to lead to a higher S&P close two or three sessions later. Friday is the third day for this signal…

Three Higher Highs for S&P Futures, Total New 52wk Highs Expand, New Lows Contract Each Day
06/21/11… S&P futures ??? three sessions later
04/21/11… S&P futures +0.7% two sessions later
07/22/10… S&P futures +2.0% two sessions later
06/14/10… S&P futures +2.2% two sessions later
06/11/10… S&P futures +2.2% two sessions later
02/18/10… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later
11/09/09… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
11/06/09… S&P futures +2.4% two sessions later
08/24/09… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later
07/15/09… S&P futures +1.1% two sessions later
11/30/07… S&P futures +0.2% three sessions later
10/29/07… S&P futures +0.5% two sessions later
06/15/07… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
03/08/07… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later
11/07/06… S&P futures -0.3% three sessions later
08/16/06… S&P futures +0.6% two sessions later
03/15/06… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later
02/16/06… S&P futures +0.0% three sessions later
10/03/05… S&P futures -2.8% three sessions later
12/22/04… S&P futures +0.4% three sessions later
11/03/04… S&P futures +2.0% three sessions later
10/04/04… S&P futures +0.6% two sessions later
08/18/04… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
05/27/04… S&P futures +0.2% three sessions later
05/26/04… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
05/25/04… S&P futures +0.9% two sessions later
02/27/04… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
11/26/03… S&P futures +1.2% two sessions later
07/29/02… S&P futures +2.0% two sessions later
02/27/02… S&P futures +1.9% two sessions later
11/06/01… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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