3-day SPX Advance/Decline Thrust Hits Three-Month High
By
Rennie on Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011 at 10:55 am
Wayne Whaley discussed the bullish longer-term implications of the high 3-day SPX Advance/Decline Thrust in his Tuesday evening column. I’d like to build on that study by also pointing out that an 80+ ADT3 has bullish implications looking out just 1-2 weeks. Here’s a rundown of every instance since 1990 when ADT3 crossed 80…
SPX ADT3 Crosses Above 80
06/21/11… SPX ??? one week later
03/21/11… SPX +0.9% one week later, +2.7% two weeks later
12/03/10… SPX +1.3% one week later, +1.6% two weeks later
09/03/10… SPX +1.6% one week later, +3.5% two weeks later
07/26/10… SPX +1.0% one week later, +1.2% two weeks later
07/08/10… SPX +2.5% one week later, +2.2% two weeks later
11/09/09… SPX +1.5% one week later, +1.2% two weeks later
09/08/09… SPX +2.7% one week later, +4.5% two weeks later
08/21/09… SPX +0.3% one week later, -1.0% two weeks later
07/15/09… SPX +2.3% one week later, +4.6% two weeks later
06/01/09… SPX -0.4% one week later, -2.0% two weeks later
04/02/09… SPX +2.7% one week later, +4.2% two weeks later
03/12/09… SPX +4.4% one week later, +10.9% two weeks later
01/02/09… SPX -4.5% one week later, -8.8% two weeks later
11/25/08… SPX +1.6% one week later, +4.9% two weeks later
02/26/08… SPX -4.0% one week later, -4.4% two weeks later
03/21/07… SPX -1.2% one week later, +0.3% two weeks later
05/18/05… SPX +0.4% one week later, +1.6% two weeks later
08/18/04… SPX +0.9% one week later, +1.0% two weeks later
09/02/03… SPX +0.1% one week later, +0.7% two weeks later
03/17/03… SPX +0.2% one week later, -1.7% two weeks later
10/14/02… SPX +6.9% one week later, +5.8% two weeks later
08/08/02… SPX +2.7% one week later, +6.3% two weeks later
04/30/97… SPX +1.8% one week later, +4.3% two weeks later
08/02/96… SPX -0.1% one week later, +0.4% two weeks later
12/26/91… SPX +3.6% one week later, +2.5% two weeks later
10/22/90… SPX -4.1% one week later, -0.1% two weeks later
In 22 out of the last 26 occurrences, or 85% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher one week after the SPX ADT3 crossed 80, sigificantly above the 55% random chance for a higher SPX five sessions later. Accuracy dropped off a bit looking out two weeks but was still respectable at 77%.
3-day SPX Advance/Decline Thrust Hits Three-Month High
By Rennie on Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011 at 10:55 amWayne Whaley discussed the bullish longer-term implications of the high 3-day SPX Advance/Decline Thrust in his Tuesday evening column. I’d like to build on that study by also pointing out that an 80+ ADT3 has bullish implications looking out just 1-2 weeks. Here’s a rundown of every instance since 1990 when ADT3 crossed 80…
SPX ADT3 Crosses Above 80
06/21/11… SPX ??? one week later
03/21/11… SPX +0.9% one week later, +2.7% two weeks later
12/03/10… SPX +1.3% one week later, +1.6% two weeks later
09/03/10… SPX +1.6% one week later, +3.5% two weeks later
07/26/10… SPX +1.0% one week later, +1.2% two weeks later
07/08/10… SPX +2.5% one week later, +2.2% two weeks later
11/09/09… SPX +1.5% one week later, +1.2% two weeks later
09/08/09… SPX +2.7% one week later, +4.5% two weeks later
08/21/09… SPX +0.3% one week later, -1.0% two weeks later
07/15/09… SPX +2.3% one week later, +4.6% two weeks later
06/01/09… SPX -0.4% one week later, -2.0% two weeks later
04/02/09… SPX +2.7% one week later, +4.2% two weeks later
03/12/09… SPX +4.4% one week later, +10.9% two weeks later
01/02/09… SPX -4.5% one week later, -8.8% two weeks later
11/25/08… SPX +1.6% one week later, +4.9% two weeks later
02/26/08… SPX -4.0% one week later, -4.4% two weeks later
03/21/07… SPX -1.2% one week later, +0.3% two weeks later
05/18/05… SPX +0.4% one week later, +1.6% two weeks later
08/18/04… SPX +0.9% one week later, +1.0% two weeks later
09/02/03… SPX +0.1% one week later, +0.7% two weeks later
03/17/03… SPX +0.2% one week later, -1.7% two weeks later
10/14/02… SPX +6.9% one week later, +5.8% two weeks later
08/08/02… SPX +2.7% one week later, +6.3% two weeks later
04/30/97… SPX +1.8% one week later, +4.3% two weeks later
08/02/96… SPX -0.1% one week later, +0.4% two weeks later
12/26/91… SPX +3.6% one week later, +2.5% two weeks later
10/22/90… SPX -4.1% one week later, -0.1% two weeks later
In 22 out of the last 26 occurrences, or 85% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher one week after the SPX ADT3 crossed 80, sigificantly above the 55% random chance for a higher SPX five sessions later. Accuracy dropped off a bit looking out two weeks but was still respectable at 77%.