SPX Short-term Oversold

The table below highlights the S&P500′s performance when the SPX 2-day RSI is under 2.0 (as was the case at Tuesday’s close), beginning with the date on the left when it fell under 2.0 and followed by the S&P’s percentage gain/loss by the time RSI rose over 2.0. Over the last 30 occurrences stretching back to 1999 it never spent more than three consecutive sessions under 2.0. In 26 cases, or 87% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close one or two sessions later, well above the 66% random chance…

S&P500 2-day RSI Closes Below 2.0
04/12/11… S&P500 ??? when 2day RSI >2
11/16/10… S&P500 +0.0% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/30/10… S&P500 -0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (three sessions)
06/24/10… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
05/20/10… S&P500 +1.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/02/09… S&P500 +0.9% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/20/09… S&P500 +0.4% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% when 2day RSI >2 (three sessions)
01/22/08… S&P500 +2.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/08… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/27/07… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/13/06… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/05… S&P500 -0.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
08/06/04… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
03/11/04… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/22/03… S&P500 +1.0% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/19/02… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/03/02… S&P500 +1.8% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
07/22/02… S&P500 +3.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
04/26/02… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/20/01… S&P500 +2.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/07/01… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/15/01… S&P500 -0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
02/09/01… S&P500 +1.2% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
11/10/00… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/11/00… S&P500 +0.8% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/18/00… S&P500 +1.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
04/14/00… S&P500 +3.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
10/15/99… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
08/04/99… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
05/25/99… S&P500 +1.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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