NYSE TICK Posts Highest Intraday Low of 2011

Two bullish signals Tuesday further underscoring the large number of positive developments last outlined in this April 18th column… Today marked only the 14th time in the history of the SPY that it closed above the day’s midpoint eight consecutive sessions. That’s historically been a bullish longer-term development, with all prior instances leading to a higher S&P three months later…

SPY Closes above Midpoint Eight Consecutive Sessions
04/26/11… SPY  ??? three months later
02/14/11… SPY +1.0%  three months later (open – ends 5/11)
12/28/10… SPY +4.0% three months later
02/19/10… SPY +2.5% three months later
07/28/09… SPY +10.6% three months later
02/23/07… SPY +5.0% three months later
02/08/07… SPY +4.1% three months later
11/21/06… SPY +3.8% three months later
10/12/06… SPY +3.9% three months later
06/20/05… SPY +1.5% three months later
03/21/03… SPY +13.4% three months later
06/17/97… SPY +1.7% three months later
09/08/95… SPY +7.3% three months later
02/26/93… SPY +1.2% three months later

NYSE TICK barely traded below -600, and the complete absence of selling pressure kept the Cumulative TICK on a strong upward trajectory throughout Tuesday’s session. It finished the session at +83,675, its highest reading in over two months. Unusually strong Cumulative TICK readings traditionally lead to further upside for the stock market over the next two weeks. Here’s a look at the last 30 instances in which Cumulative TICK closed at a two-month high…

NYSE Cumulative TICK Hits a Two-Month (40 trading day) High
04/26/11… S&P500 ??? two weeks later
02/01/11… S&P500 +1.6% two weeks later
10/08/10… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
10/05/10… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
07/22/10… S&P500 +2.9% two weeks later
07/20/10… S&P500 +3.4% two weeks later
07/07/10… S&P500 +0.9% two weeks later
03/05/10… S&P500 +1.9% two weeks later
02/02/10… S&P500 -0.4% two weeks later
12/23/09… S&P500 +2.2% two weeks later
12/01/09… S&P500 -0.1% two weeks later
07/15/09… S&P500 +4.6%  two weeks later
03/12/09… S&P500 +10.9% two weeks later
03/10/09… S&P500 +12.0% two weeks later
01/02/09… S&P500 -8.8% two weeks later (*)
10/13/08… S&P500 -15.4% two weeks later (*)
07/29/08… S&P500 +2.1% two weeks later
07/16/08… S&P500 +3.1% two weeks later
04/16/08… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
03/18/08… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later
11/28/07… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
06/27/07… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later
05/02/07… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
04/05/07… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later
03/20/07… S&P500 +1.9% two weeks later
10/12/06… S&P500 +1.9% two weeks later
10/04/06… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
07/19/06… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
06/01/06… S&P500 -2.3% two weeks later (*)
04/18/06… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
01/03/06… S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later

In 25 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 83% of the time, the S&P was trading higher two weeks later, significantly better than the 59% random odds for a higher S&P ten trading days later in the same time frame.

On a short-term basis, the fact that NYSE TICK only traded as low as -603 points to limited upside potential on Wednesday. An absence of large negative TICK readings is an obvious positive for the day, but it usually leads to a sideways trading range the following session. Gains tend to be below-average when they do occur. Below is every instance since 2005 in which the S&P500 closed at a 15-day high and the NYSE TICK posted its highest low of the last 15 sessions. Note how unusual it’s been to see any sort of substantial gain the next day, with only one instance out of 46 leading to a gain of more than 0.5%. This points to an area of short-term resistance in the SPX 1354 region for Wednesday…

SPX 15-day High, NYSE TICK Highest Low in 15 Days
04/26/11… S&P500 ??? next day
04/21/11… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/01/11… S&P500 -0.3% next day
12/22/10… S&P500 -0.2% next day
12/02/10… S&P500 +0.3% next day
11/04/10… S&P500 +0.4% next day
09/24/10… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/20/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
07/26/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/15/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/05/10… S&P500 -0.0% next day
02/18/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
12/22/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
11/09/09… S&P500 -0.0% next day
10/19/09… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/22/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
09/16/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day (*)
05/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% next day
04/09/09… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/05/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/15/08… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/30/07… S&P500 +0.0% next day
05/02/07… S&P500 +0.4% next day
04/05/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
01/24/07… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/16/06… S&P500 -0.4% next day
10/12/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/04/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/03/06… S&P500 -0.7% next day
06/29/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/05/06… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/16/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.9% next day
11/02/05… S&P500 +0.4% next day
09/09/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day
08/02/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
05/27/05… S&P500 -0.6% next day
05/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/04/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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