S&P Futures Post Sixth Consecutive Higher High

With the caveat that short-term sell setups haven’t been performing well in this bullish environment, I see S&P futures posted six consecutive sessions of higher highs as of Wednesday’s close. Since 2000 we’ve seen 32 separate instances of six higher highs, 28 (88%) of which led to a lower S&P 2-4 sessions later. That’s significantly greater than the 63% random chance for a lower S&P 2-4 days later…

Six Higher Highs for S&P Futures
03/30/11… ???
07/27/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/13/10… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/16/10… Lower S&P close four sessions later
03/12/10… No lower S&P close 2-4 sessions later
02/19/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/08/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/29/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/11/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
09/11/09… No lower S&P close 2-4 sessions later
08/25/09… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/27/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/01/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/17/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/19/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/05/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/15/06… Lower S&P close four sessions later
06/17/05… Lower S&P close four sessions later
05/23/05… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/16/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/02/04… No lower S&P close 2-4 sessions later
04/01/04… No lower S&P close 2-4 sessions later
01/22/04… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/08/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/02/03… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/16/03… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/20/03… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/31/02… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/08/02… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/14/02… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/07/01… Lower S&P close three sessions later
08/08/00… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/14/00… Lower S&P close two sessions later

From an intermediate-term perspective we continue to see bullish signals, such as the NYSE 10-day Up/Down Volume Thrust exceeding 65% Thursday. Over the last 24 instances since 1990 in which the NYSE UDT10 topped 65, 20 led to a higher S&P close two weeks later. The S&P was down 1.5% two weeks later only once while it was up 1.5%+ eleven times…

NYSE UDT10 Tops 65% First Time in Two Weeks
03/30/11… S&P500 ??? two weeks later
12/10/10… S&P500 +1.4% two weeks later
09/10/10… S&P500 +3.5% two weeks later
03/09/10… S&P500 +3.0% two weeks later
09/16/09… S&P500 -1.1% two weeks later
07/23/09… S&P500 +2.1% two weeks later
04/14/09… S&P500 +1.6% two weeks later
03/18/09… S&P500 +2.1% two weeks later
12/05/08… S&P500 +1.4% two weeks later
12/10/07… S&P500 -1.3% two weeks later
11/05/04… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
08/27/04… S&P500 +1.6% two weeks later
12/30/03… S&P500 +1.9% two weeks later
10/14/03… S&P500 -0.3% two weeks later
06/04/03… S&P500 +2.4% two weeks later
03/25/03… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
10/23/02… S&P500 +3.1% two weeks later
08/19/02… S&P500 -7.7% two weeks later
10/22/98… S&P500 +5.1% two weeks later
05/05/97… S&P500 +0.4% two weeks later
08/07/96… S&P500 +0.1% two weeks later
12/30/91… S&P500 +1.3% two weeks later
01/24/91… S&P500 +6.5% two weeks later
12/05/90… S&P500 +0.1% two weeks later
05/11/90… S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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